IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/srk/srkwps/201743.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Coherent financial cycles for G-7 countries: Why extending credit can be an asset

Author

Listed:
  • Schüler, Yves S.
  • Hiebert, Paul H.
  • Peltonen, Tuomas A.

Abstract

Failing to account for joint dynamics of credit and asset prices can be hazardous for countercyclical macroprudential policy. We show that composite financial cycles, emphasising expansions and contractions common to credit and asset prices, powerfully predict systemic banking crises. Further, the joint consideration yields a more robust view on financial cycle characteristics, reconciling an empirical puzzle concerning cycle properties when using two popular alternative methodologies: frequency decompositions and standard turning point analysis. Using a novel spectral approach, we establish the following facts for G-7 countries (1970Q1-2013Q4): Relative to business cycles, financial cycles differ in amplitude and persistence – albeit with heterogeneity across countries. Average financial cycle length is around 15 years, compared with 9 years (6.7 excluding Japan) for business cycles. Still, country-level business and financial cycles relate occasionally. Across countries, financial cycle synchronisation is strong for most countries; but not for all. In contrast, business cycles relate homogeneously. JEL Classification: C54, E32, E44, E58, G01

Suggested Citation

  • Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul H. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2017. "Coherent financial cycles for G-7 countries: Why extending credit can be an asset," ESRB Working Paper Series 43, European Systemic Risk Board.
  • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:201743
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esrb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/wp/esrbwp43.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Gertler, 1988. "Financial structure and aggregate economic activity: an overview," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 559-596.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    4. Jaccard, Ivan, 2018. "Asset pricing and the propagation of financial shocks," Working Paper Series 2150, European Central Bank.
    5. Fink, Fabian & Schüler, Yves S., 2015. "The transmission of US systemic financial stress: Evidence for emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 6-26.
    6. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Fabio Canova & Alain Schlaepfer, 2015. "Has the Euro‐Mediterranean Partnership Affected Mediterranean Business Cycles?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 241-262, March.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    9. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 1349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
    12. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    13. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407.
    14. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
    15. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Verona, Fabio, 2016. "Time–frequency characterization of the U.S. financial cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 75-79.
    17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    18. David Aikman & Andrew G. Haldane & Benjamin D. Nelson, 2015. "Curbing the Credit Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 1072-1109, June.
    19. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
    20. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 2009. "Welfare implications of the transition to high household debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-16, January.
    21. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    22. Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti & Alejandro Justiniano, 2014. "Credit Supply and the Housing Boom," 2014 Meeting Papers 766, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    24. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," Discussion Papers 11/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    26. Hubrich, Kirstin & Tetlow, Robert J., 2015. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 100-115.
    27. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2011. "Quasi real time early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: A role for global liquidity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 520-533, September.
    28. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Financial Cycles: What? How? When?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 303-344.
    29. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    31. Gabriele Galati & Irma Hindrayanto & Siem Jan Koopman & Marente Vlekke, 2016. "Measuring financial cycles with a model-based filter: Empirical evidence for the United States and the euro area," DNB Working Papers 495, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    32. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters,in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    34. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-1244, September.
    35. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2015. "US Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle," NBER Working Papers 21722, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    37. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    38. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters,in: Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    39. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: Challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1426-1461, December.
    40. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    41. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    42. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    43. Guillermo Ordonez & Gary Gorton, 2015. "Good Booms, Bad Booms," 2015 Meeting Papers 292, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    44. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    45. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
    46. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    47. Jeremy Berkowitz & Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "Bootstrapping Multivariate Spectra," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 664-666, November.
    48. Frédéric Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Frank Smets, 2016. "Booms and Banking Crises," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(2), pages 489-538.
    49. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Rey, Hélène, 2015. "World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 10936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    50. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    51. Sudipto Bhattacharya & Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2015. "A Reconsideration of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 931-973, August.
    52. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, December.
    53. Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A Measure Of Comovement For Economic Variables: Theory And Empirics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 232-241, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schüler, Yves S., 2018. "On the cyclical properties of Hamilton's regression filter," Discussion Papers 03/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Schüler, Yves S., 2018. "Detrending and financial cycle facts across G7 countries: mind a spurious medium term!," Working Paper Series 2138, European Central Bank.
    3. Kunovac, Davor & Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2018. "Financial cycles in euro area economies: A cross-country perspective," Discussion Papers 04/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial cycle; Macroprudential policy; Spectral analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:201743. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/esrbede.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.