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Characterizing the financial cycle: evidence from a frequency domain analysis

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  • Till Strohsal
  • Christian R. Proaño
  • Jürgen Wolters

Abstract

This paper introduces parametric spectrum estimation to the analysis of financial cycles. Our contribution is to formally test properties of financial cycles and to characterize their international interaction in the frequency domain. Existing work argues that the financial cycle is considerably longer in duration and larger in amplitude than the business cycle and that its distinguishing features became more pronounced over time. Also, a global cycle, being driven by US monetary policy, is said to be behind national financial cycles. We provide strong statistical evidence for the US and slightly weaker evidence for the UK validating the hypothesized features of the national financial cycle. In Germany, however, the financial cycle is much less visible. Similarly, a US-driven global financial cycle significantly affects national cycles in the UK but not in Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Till Strohsal & Christian R. Proaño & Jürgen Wolters, 2017. "Characterizing the financial cycle: evidence from a frequency domain analysis," IMK Working Paper 189-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:wpaper:189-2017
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Cycle; Business Cycle; Indirect Spectrum Estimation; Bootstrapping Inference.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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