IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/596.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The demand for broad money in the United Kingdom, 1878-1993

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Using annual data from Friedman and Schwartz (1982), Hendry and Ericsson (1991a) developed an empirical model of the demand for broad money in the United Kingdom over 1878-1975. We update that model over 1976-1993, accounting for changed data definitions and clarifying the concept of constancy. With appropriate measures of opportunity cost and credit deregulation, the model's parameters are empirically constant over the extended sample, which was economically turbulent. Policy implications follow for parameter nonconstancy and predictive failure, causation between money and prices, monetary targeting, deregulation and financial innovation, and the effect of policy on economic agents' behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestwich, 1997. "The demand for broad money in the United Kingdom, 1878-1993," International Finance Discussion Papers 596, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:596
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1997/596/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1997/596/ifdp596.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    2. Sunil Sharma & Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 417-436.
    3. Pagan, Adrian, 1987. "Three Econometric Methodologies: A Critical Appraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 3-24.
    4. Hendry, David F, 1994. "HUS Revisited," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 86-106, Summer.
    5. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Economic Monetary Aggregates: An Application of Index Number and Aggregation Theory," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 11-48, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356, Elsevier.
    7. Salkever, David S., 1976. "The use of dummy variables to compute predictions, prediction errors, and confidence intervals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 393-397, November.
    8. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-563, September.
    11. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    12. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
    13. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    14. Jurgen A. Doornik & Henrik Hansen, 2008. "An Omnibus Test for Univariate and Multivariate Normality," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 927-939, December.
    15. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
    16. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
    17. Sprenkle, C M & Miller, M H, 1980. "The Precautionary Demand for Narrow and Broad Money," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 407-421, November.
    18. Messer, Karen & White, Halbert, 1984. "A Note on Computing the Heteroskedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Using Instrumental Variable Techniques," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(2), pages 181-184, May.
    19. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    20. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    21. Patterson, Kerry D, 1993. "The Impact of Credit Constraints, Interest Rates and Housing Equity Withdrawal on the Intertemporal Pattern of Consumption--A Diagrammatic Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(4), pages 391-407, November.
    22. Hendry, David F & Ericsson, Neil R, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 8-38, March.
    23. Hendry,David F. & Morgan,Mary S., 1997. "The Foundations of Econometric Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521588706.
    24. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    25. Muellbauer, John, 1994. "The Assessment: Consumer Expenditure," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 1-41, Summer.
    26. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    27. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    28. Nicholls, D F & Pagan, A R, 1983. "Heteroscedasticity in Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1233-1242, July.
    29. Banerjee, Anindya & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1996. "The Econometric Analysis of Economic Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 573-600, November.
    30. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985. "Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September.
    31. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
    32. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    33. Anderson, Gordon J & Hendry, David F, 1984. "An Econometric Model of United Kingdom Building Societies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(3), pages 185-210, August.
    34. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-494, Sept.-Oct.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "How biased are U.S. government forecasts of the federal debt?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 543-559.
    2. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2019. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 568-591.
    3. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Semi-automatic Non-linear Model selection," Economics Series Working Papers 654, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. David H. Bernstein & Andrew B. Martinez, 2021. "Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Igor Pelipas, 2011. "Structural Breaks and Dynamic Characteristics of Inflation and Growth Rates of Monetary Aggregates," BEROC Working Paper Series 15, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    7. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2009. "The long-run determinants of UK wages, 1860-2004," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 5-28, March.
    8. Eliasson Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Detecting Equilibrium Correction with Smoothly Time-Varying Strength," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-19, July.
    9. Jalles, Joao Tovar, 2019. "Crises and emissions: New empirical evidence from a large sample," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 880-895.
    10. Timo Teräsvirta, 2017. "Nonlinear models in macroeconometrics," CREATES Research Papers 2017-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Pei-Fen & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2007. "Testing linearity in a cointegrating STR model for the money demand function: International evidence from G-7 countries," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 76(4), pages 293-302.
    12. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    13. Błażejowski, Marcin & Kufel, Paweł & Kufel, Tadeusz & Kwiatkowski, Jacek & Osińska, Magdalena, 2018. "Model selection for modeling the demand for narrow money in transitional economies," MPRA Paper 90458, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The historical role of energy in UK inflation and productivity and implications for price inflation in 2022," Economics Series Working Papers 983, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    15. Magdalena Osinska & Marcin Blazejowski & Pawel Kufel & Tadeusz Kufel & Jacek Kwiatkowski, 2020. "Narrow Money Demand in Indonesia and in Other Transitional Economies – Model Selection and Forecasting," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1291-1311.
    16. Petrevski, Goran & Jovanovski, Kiril, 2010. "Demand for money in Macedonia," SEER Journal for Labour and Social Affairs in Eastern Europe, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 13(1), pages 121-136.
    17. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Beyer, Andreas, 2019. "A cointegration model of money and wealth," CFS Working Paper Series 619, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    18. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    19. Barlow, David, 2023. "The stability of UK households Divisia money balances," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 451-459.
    20. Hendry, David F., 2000. "On detectable and non-detectable structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 45-65, July.
    21. Fabrizio CORICELLI & Bostjan JAZBEC & Igor MASTEN, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Acceding Countries: The Role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/16, European University Institute.
    22. Hans Christian Kongsted, 2002. "Testing the Nominal-to-Real Transformation," Discussion Papers 02-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    23. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 2008. "Constructive data mining: modeling Argentine broad money demand," International Finance Discussion Papers 943, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Neil R. Ericsson, David F. Hendry & Kevin M. Prestiwch, "undated". "The UK Demand for Broad Money over the Long run," Economics Papers W29, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    2. Sunil Sharma & Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 417-436.
    3. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    5. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    6. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
    7. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    8. Qizilbash, M., 1994. "Bribery, efficiency wages and political protection," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9418, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    9. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
    10. Neil R. Ericsson & Steven B. Kamin, 1993. "Dollarization in Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 460, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1999. "On selecting policy analysis models by forecast accuracy," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9918, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    12. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    13. Cook, S., 1996. "Econometric methodology I," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9618, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    14. Ulph, A., 1997. "Political institutions and the design of environmental policy in a federal system with asymmetric information," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9718, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    15. Aldrich, J., 1992. "Haavelmo's Identification Theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9218, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    16. Ulph, A., 1993. "Environmental policy and international trade when governments and producers act strategically," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9318, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    17. Chadha, J.S. & Schellekens, P., 1998. "Utility functions for central bankers: the not so drastic quadratic," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9818, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    18. Ulph, A., 1995. "International environmental regulation when national governments act strategically," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9518, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    19. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    20. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money; Great Britain;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:596. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.