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Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models

  • Breitung, Jörg
  • Eickmeier, Sandra

This paper compares alternative estimation procedures for multi-level factor models which imply blocks of zero restrictions on the associated matrix of factor loadings. We suggest a sequential least squares algorithm for minimizing the total sum of squared residuals and a two-step approach based on canonical correlations that are much simpler and faster than Bayesian approaches previously employed in the literature. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the estimators perform well in typical sample sizes encountered in the factor analysis of macroeconomic data sets. We apply the methodologies to study international comovements of business and financial cycles as well as asymmetries over the business cycle in the US.

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 11/2014.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:112014
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  9. Breitung, Jörg & Tenhofen, Jörn, 2011. "GLS Estimation of Dynamic Factor Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(495), pages 1150-1166.
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  12. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence," Working Paper 2011/16, Norges Bank.
  13. D'Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico, 2007. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 6564, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  19. Boivin, Jean & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Are more data always better for factor analysis?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 169-194, May.
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  27. Jörg Breitung & Uta Pigorsch, 2013. "A Canonical Correlation Approach for Selecting the Number of Dynamic Factors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 23-36, 02.
  28. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "Are the effects of monetary policy in the euro area greater in recessions than in booms?," Working Paper Series 0052, European Central Bank.
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