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Monetary policy, housing booms and financial (im)balances

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  • Eickmeier, Sandra
  • Hofmann, Boris

Abstract

This paper uses a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) estimated on U.S. data in order to analyze monetary transmission via private sector balance sheets, credit risk spreads and asset markets in an integrated setup and to explore the role of monetary policy in the three imbalances that were observed prior to the global financial crisis: high house price inflation, strong private debt growth and low credit risk spreads. The results suggest that (i) monetary policy shocks have a highly significant and persistent effect on house prices, real estate wealth and private sector debt as well as a strong short-lived effect on risk spreads in the money and mortgage markets; (ii) monetary policy shocks have contributed discernibly, but at a late stage to the unsustainable developments in house and credit markets that were observable between 2001 and 2006; (iii) financial shocks have influenced the path of policy rates prior to the crisis, and the feedback effects of financial shocks via lower policy rates on property and credit markets are found to have probably been considerable.

Suggested Citation

  • Eickmeier, Sandra & Hofmann, Boris, 2010. "Monetary policy, housing booms and financial (im)balances," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:201007
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    Cited by:

    1. Max Breitenlechner & Johann Scharler, 2018. "How does monetary policy influence bank lending? Evidence from the market for banks' wholesale funding," Working Papers 2018-01, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    2. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," Discussion Papers 11/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2017. "Structural Factor Analysis of Interest Rate Pass Through In Four Large Euro Area Economies," Working Papers in Economics 17/07, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    4. Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2017. "Monetary Policy Transmission And Trade-Offs In The United States: Old And New," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 17/940, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Eickmeier, Sandra & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Hofmann, Boris, 2014. "Understanding global liquidity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    6. Max Hanisch, 2017. "US Monetary Policy and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1701, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Henning Hesse & Boris Hofmann & James Weber, 2017. "The macroeconomic effects of asset purchases revisited," BIS Working Papers 680, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Gregory Bauer, 2014. "International House Price Cycles, Monetary Policy and Risk Premiums," Staff Working Papers 14-54, Bank of Canada.
    9. Belke, Ansgar & Rees, Andreas, 2014. "Globalisation and monetary policy—A FAVAR analysis for the G7 and the eurozone," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 306-321.
    10. Iñaki Aldasoro & Robert Unger, 2017. "External financing and economic activity in the euro area - why are bank loans special?," BIS Working Papers 622, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Pagliacci, Carolina, 2014. "Latin American Performance to External Shocks: What Has Really Been Sweat?," MPRA Paper 57816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Buch, Claudia M. & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2014. "In search for yield? Survey-based evidence on bank risk taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 12-30.
    13. Breitenlechner, Maximilian & Scharler, Johann, 2016. "The Bank Lending Channel and the Market for Banks' Wholesale Funding," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145679, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann & Sindermann, Friedrich, 2016. "Banks’ external financing costs and the bank lending channel: Results from a SVAR analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 228-246.
    15. Milcheva, Stanimira, 2013. "Cross-country effects of regulatory capital arbitrage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5329-5345.
    16. Carvallo, Oscar & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2013. "Macroeconomic Shocks, Housing Market and Banks’ Performance in Venezuela," MPRA Paper 58711, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2014.
    17. Carolina Pagliacci, 2016. "Are We Ignoring Supply Shocks? A Proposal for Monitoring Cyclical Fluctuations," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 21, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    18. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    19. Pavel Gertler & Boris Hofmann, 2016. "Monetary facts revisited," BIS Working Papers 566, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. repec:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:88-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Hanisch, Max, 2017. "The effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from a structural dynamic factor model for Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 110-134.
    22. Nkwoma, Inekwe John, 2017. "Futures-Based Measures Of Monetary Policy And Jump Risk," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(02), pages 384-405, March.
    23. Aastveit, Knut Are, 2014. "Oil price shocks in a data-rich environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 268-279.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; asset prices; housing; private sector balance sheets; financial crisis; factor model;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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