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The changing international transmission of US monetary policy shocks: is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries

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  • Irfan Akbar Kazi
  • Hakimzadi Wagan
  • Farhan Akbar

Abstract

We study the changing international transmission of US monetary policy shocks to 14 major OECD countries over the period 1981Q1-2010Q4. We use a time-varying parameter factor augmented VAR approach to study the effective federal funds rate shocks together with a large data set of 265, major financial, macroeconomic and trade variables. Our main findings are as follows. First, negative US monetary policy shocks have considerable negative impact on GDP growth in the US, Canada, Japan and Sweden whereas there is positive impact on GDP growth in the most of the other member countries. Second, the transmission to GDP growth has increased in OECD countries since the early 1980s. Third, the transmission of US monetary policy shocks to major economic and financial variables varies in magnitude during financial turmoil periods than normal periods such as the gross fixed capital formation residential, turned most negative over the second quarter after the initial shock in the US, Canada, Germany, Japan, Switzerland and New Zealand mainly during 2008Q4. Asset prices, interest rates and trade channel seem to play major role in propagation of monetary policy shocks.

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  • Irfan Akbar Kazi & Hakimzadi Wagan & Farhan Akbar, 2012. "The changing international transmission of US monetary policy shocks: is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-27, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2012-27
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    Cited by:

    1. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2016. "Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 822-837.
    2. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2016. "Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 331-357.
    3. DJIGBENOU-KRE, Marie-Louise & Park, Hail, 2016. "The effects of global liquidity on global imbalances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Anastasios Evgenidis & Costas Siriopoulos, 2015. "What are the International Channels Through Which a US Policy Shock is Transmitted to The World Economies? Evidence from a Time Varying FAVAR," Working Papers 190, Bank of Greece.
    5. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Kristina Hess & Abeer Reza, 2014. "International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada," Staff Working Papers 14-43, Bank of Canada.
    6. Soumia Zenasni, 2015. "Recent Trends in Regional Financial Integration and Trade Liberalization in Maghreb Countries: A Multivariate Threshold Autoregressive Analysis," FIW Working Paper series 145, FIW.
    7. Cheng, Wenli & Zhang, Dingsheng, 2016. "How might the South be helped by Northern technology yet harmed by Northern money?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 83-91.
    8. Francis, Neville & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2015. "Does the United States Lead Foreign Business Cycles?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 97(2), pages 133-158.

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    Keywords

    Monetary policy shocks; financial markets; international transmission channels; global integration; turmoil periods; time-varying parameter factor augmented VAR.;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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