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What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?

Author

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  • Ben S. Bernanke
  • Kenneth N. Kuttner

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of unanticipated changes in the Federal funds target on equity prices, with the aim of both estimating the size of the typical reaction, and understanding the reasons for the market's response. On average over the May 1989 to December 2001 sample, a \\"typical\\" unanticipated 25 basis point rate cut has been associated with a 1.3 percent increase in the S&P 500 composite index. The estimated response varies considerably across industries, with the greatest sensitivity observed in cyclical industries like construction, and the smallest in mining and utilities. Very little of the market's reaction can be attributed to policy's effects on the real rate of interest or future dividends, however. Instead, most of the response of the current excess return on equities can be traced to policy's impact on expected future excess returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2003. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2003:i:mar:x:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. repec:cdl:anderf:qt04f1z5hb is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
    2. Sasidharan, Anand, 2009. "Stock Market's Reaction to Monetary Policy Announcements in India," MPRA Paper 24190, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2010.
    3. Milani, Fabio, 2017. "Learning about the interdependence between the macroeconomy and the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 223-242.
    4. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Donald L. Kohn & Brian P. Sack, 2003. "Central bank talk: does it matter and why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Pierre L. Siklos & Martin T. Bohl, 2008. "Policy words and policy deeds: the ECB and the euro," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 247-265.
    8. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    9. Vladimír Pikora, 2007. "Vliv zveřejněných informací na výnosovou křivku [The impact of fresh releases on the yield curve]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(6), pages 809-828.
    10. Pierre L. Siklos & Martin T. Bohl, 2008. "Policy words and policy deeds: the ECB and the euro," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 247-265.
    11. McCredie, Bronwyn & Docherty, Paul & Easton, Steve & Uylangco, Katherine, 2016. "The channels of monetary policy triggered by central bank actions and statements in the Australian equity market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 46-61.
    12. Don Bredin & Caroline Gavin & Gerard O Reilly, 2003. "The Influence of Domestic and International Interest Rates on the ISEQ," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 249-265.
    13. Levin, Andrew T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Natalucci, Fabio M., 2004. "Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes," Working Paper Series 383, European Central Bank.
    14. Gregory Bauer & Clara Vega, 2004. "The Monetary Origins of Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," Staff Working Papers 04-47, Bank of Canada.
    15. Lavan Mahadeva, 2007. "A model of market surprises," Bank of England working papers 327, Bank of England.
    16. Zhou, Xiaoguang & Cui, Yadi & Wu, Shihwei & Wang, Weiqing, 2019. "The influence of cultural distance on the volatility of the international stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 289-300.

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