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Vliv zveřejněných informací na výnosovou křivku
[The impact of fresh releases on the yield curve]

Author

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  • Vladimír Pikora

Abstract

The paper deals with the impact of new information on the fixed income market. We expect this to be the first study covering such a topic in Central European markets. We prepared a model of a market reaction and found out that the market is not significantly driven by new macroeconomic figures. The sharpest moves have never been caused by a new number, but developments abroad and unexpected statements of central bankers. Scheduled central bank decisions on the interest rates did not affect yields as much as these two factors. The main message of this text for short term investors is, that in contrast to the USA, it is better for them to follow trading abroad than the Czech fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimír Pikora, 2007. "Vliv zveřejněných informací na výnosovou křivku [The impact of fresh releases on the yield curve]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(6), pages 809-828.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2007:y:2007:i:6:id:625:p:809-828
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.625
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    5. Engle, Robert F, 1998. "Macroeconomic Announcements and Volatility of Treasury Futures," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt7rd4g3bk, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    6. Timothy Q. Cook & Thomas K. Hahn, 1990. "Interest rate expectations and the slope of the money market yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 76(Sep), pages 3-26.
    7. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M Remolona, 1999. "The term structure of announcement effects," BIS Working Papers 71, Bank for International Settlements.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    central bank; yield curve; information release; market reaction; analysts; expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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