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Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest



US interest rates'overnight reaction to macroeconomic announcements is of tremendous importance trading fixed income securities. Most of the empirical studies achieved so far either assumed that the interest rates' reaction to announcements is linear or independent to the state of the economy. We investigate the shape of the tern structure reaction of the swap rates to announcements using several linear and non-linear time series models. The empirical results yield several not-so-well-known stylized facts about the bond market. First, and although we used a daily dataset, we find that the introduction of non linear models leads to the finding of a significant number of macroeconomic figures that actually produce an effect over the yield curve. Most of the studies using daily datasets did not corroborate so far this conclusion. Second, we find that the term structure response to announcements can be much more complicated that what is generally found : we noticed at least four types of patterns in the term structure reaction of interest rates across maturities, including the hump-shaped one that is generally considered. Third, by comparing the shapes of the rates' term structure reaction to announcements with the first four factors obtained when performing a principal component analysis of the daily changes in the swap rates, we propose a first interpretation and classification of these different shapes. Fourth, we find that the existence of some outliers in the one-day changes in interest rates usually leads to a strong underestimation of the reaction of interest rates to announcements, explaining the different results obtained between high-frequency and daily datasets : the first type of study seems to lead to the finding of fewer market mover announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominique Guégan & Florian Ielpo, 2007. "Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b07062, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:b07062

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bonnisseau, Jean-Marc & Lachiri, Oussama, 2004. "On the objective of firms under uncertainty with stock markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 493-513, August.
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    4. Dreze, Jacques H, 1985. "(Uncertainty and) the Firm in General Equilibrium Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380a), pages 1-20, Supplemen.
    5. Magill, Michael & Shafer, Wayne, 1991. "Incomplete markets," Handbook of Mathematical Economics,in: W. Hildenbrand & H. Sonnenschein (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 30, pages 1523-1614 Elsevier.
    6. Oussama Lachiri & Jean-Marc Bonnisseau, 2004. "Dreze's Criterion In A Multi-Period Economy With Stock Markets," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 88, Royal Economic Society.
    7. Geanakoplos, John, 1990. "An introduction to general equilibrium with incomplete asset markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-38.
    8. Radner, Roy, 1972. "Existence of Equilibrium of Plans, Prices, and Price Expectations in a Sequence of Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(2), pages 289-303, March.
    9. Geanakoplos, J. & Magill, M. & Quinzii, M. & Dreze, J., 1990. "Generic inefficiency of stock market equilibrium when markets are incomplete," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 113-151.
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    Cited by:

    1. Melanie-Kristin Beck & Bernd Hayo & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2013. "Central bank communication and correlation between financial markets: Canada and the United States," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 277-296, June.
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9305 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Aymen Belgacem, 2009. "Fundamentals, Macroeconomic Announcements and Asset Prices," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    4. Marie Briere & Florian Ielpo, 2007. "Yield curve reaction to macroeconomic news in Europe :disentangling the US influence," Working Papers CEB 07-038.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Di Maggio, Marco, 2010. "The Political Economy of the Yield Curve," MPRA Paper 20697, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Macroeconomic announcements; interest rates dynamic; outliers; reaction function; principale component analysis.;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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