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VAR estimation and forecasting when data are subject to revision

  • N. Kundan Kishor
  • Evan F. Koenig

Conventional VAR estimation and forecasting ignores the fact that economic data are often subject to revision many months or years after their initial release. This paper shows how VAR analysis can be modified to account for such revisions. The proposed approach assumes that government statistical releases are efficient with a finite lag. It takes no stand on whether earlier revisions are “noise” or “news.” The technique is illustrated using data on employment and the unemployment rate, real GDP and the unemployment rate, and real GDP and the GDP/consumption ratio. In each case, the proposed procedure outperforms conventional VAR analysis and the more-restrictive methods for handling the data-revision problem that are found in the existing literature.

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File URL: http://dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/papers/2005/wp0501.pdf
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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Working Papers with number 0501.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:05-01
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  1. Cochrane, John H, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-65, February.
  2. Howrey, E Philip, 1984. "Data Revision, Reconstruction, and Prediction: An Application to Inventory Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 386-93, August.
  3. Howrey, E Philip, 1978. "The Use of Preliminary Data in Econometric Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 193-200, May.
  4. Evan Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy M. Piger, 2002. "The use and abuse of 'real-time' data in economic forecasting," Working Papers 2001-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  6. James Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-component decompositions of GDP so Different?," Working Papers UWEC-2002-18-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  7. Evans, George W, 1989. "Output and Unemployment Dynamics in the United States: 1950-1985," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 213-37, July-Sept.
  8. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
  9. Dean Croushore & Charles L. Evans, 2003. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Working Papers 03-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  10. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April.
  11. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1989. "Forecasting output with the composite leading index: an ex ante analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 90, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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