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UK Real-time Macro Data Characteristics

Author

Listed:
  • Shaun Vahey
  • Tony Garratt

    (Research RBNZ)

Abstract

We characterise the relationships between preliminary and subsequent measurements for 16 commonly-used UK macroeconomic indicators drawn from two existing real-time data sets and a new nominal variable database. Most preliminary measurements are biased predictors of subsequent measurements, with some revision series affected by multiple structural breaks. To illustrate how these findings facilitate real-time forecasting, we use a vector autoregresion to generate real-time one-step-ahead probability event forecasts for 1990Q1 to 1999Q2. Ignoring the predictability in initial measurements understates considerably the probability of above trend output growth

Suggested Citation

  • Shaun Vahey & Tony Garratt, 2005. "UK Real-time Macro Data Characteristics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 253, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:253
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

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