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Fundamentals, Macroeconomic Announcements and Asset Prices

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  • Aymen Belgacem

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study the impact of macroeconomic announcements on asset prices, with the objectives of both measuring the average response of stock returns to macroeconomic news surprises, and explaining the sources of such a reaction. To assess the importance of scheduled French and US macroeconomic announcements, Stock returns are analyzed on the French stock market. It is shown that, according to previous studies, there is little evidence of the reaction of the market to those surprises. News about inflation, U.S consumption and real economic activity are specially expected by investors. It confirms the leading role of the U.S. economy and in particular of U.S. consumers in determining the development of the world economy and the dynamics of stock markets. Results also show that unexpected positive surprise in the unemployment rate causes a cut on future excess returns and future dividends. The opposite reaction is observed from the housing starts indicator. The consumer price index appears to have an impact not only on future excess returns, but also on future real interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Aymen Belgacem, 2009. "Fundamentals, Macroeconomic Announcements and Asset Prices," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2009-16
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    File URL: http://economix.fr/pdf/dt/2009/WP_EcoX_2009-16.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. " On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    2. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    3. Roberto Rigobon & Brian P. Sack, 2001. "Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    5. Dominique Guégan & Florian Ielpo, 2007. "Further evidence on the impact of economic news on interest," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b07062, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    6. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    7. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2008. "Noisy Macroeconomic Announcements, Monetary Policy, and Asset Prices," NBER Chapters,in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 335-370 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
    9. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
    10. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ziliotto, Arianna & Serati, Massimiliano, 2015. "The semi-strong efficiency debate: In search of a new testing framework," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 412-438.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Prices; Macroeconomic Announcements; Event-Study;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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