IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmacro/v55y2018icp46-63.html

The impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on the German stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Fausch, Jürg
  • Sigonius, Markus

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on German excess stock returns and the possible reasons for such a response. First, we conduct an event study to assess the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on stock returns. Second, within the VAR framework of Campbell and Ammer (1993), we decompose excess stock returns into news regarding expected excess returns, future dividends and future real interest rates. We measure conventional monetary policy shocks using futures markets data. Our main findings are that the overall variation in German excess stock returns mainly reflects revisions in expectations about dividends and that the stock market response to monetary policy shocks is dependent on the prevailing interest rate regime. In periods of negative real interest rates, a surprise monetary tightening leads to a decrease in excess stock returns. The channels behind this response are news about higher expected excess returns and lower future dividends.

Suggested Citation

  • Fausch, Jürg & Sigonius, Markus, 2018. "The impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on the German stock market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 46-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:46-63
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.09.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016407041630146X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.09.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3154-3185, October.
    2. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating asset-market effects of unconventional monetary policy: a multi-country review [Uncertainty of interest rate path as a monetary policy instrument]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 749-799.
    3. Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
    4. Christina D. Romer, 1990. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(3), pages 597-624.
    5. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    6. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
    7. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    8. Jing Wang & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2013. "The reaction of international stock markets to Federal Reserve policy," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(1), pages 1-30, March.
    9. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & Reilly, Gerard O., 2010. "Monetary policy surprises and international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 988-1002, October.
    10. Kontonikas, Alexandros & MacDonald, Ronald & Saggu, Aman, 2013. "Stock market reaction to fed funds rate surprises: State dependence and the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4025-4037.
    11. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    12. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoît Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area: Does the Interest Rate Channel Explain it All?," NBER Working Papers 9984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q. & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2012. "Pitfalls in VAR based return decompositions: A clarification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1255-1265.
    14. Bernd Hayo & Britta Niehof, 2011. "Identification Through Heteroscedasticity in a Multicountry and Multimarket Framework," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201124, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    15. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2016. "ECB Unconventional Monetary Policy: Market Impact and International Spillovers," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 36-74, May.
    16. Reinder Haitsma & Deren Unalmis & Jakob de Haan, 2016. "The Impact of the ECB�s Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policies on Stock Markets," Working Papers 1605, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    17. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    18. Hussain, Syed Mujahid, 2011. "Simultaneous monetary policy announcements and international stock markets response: An intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 752-764, March.
    19. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    20. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    21. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    22. Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2014. "Dividend Predictability Around the World," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(5-6), pages 1255-1277, December.
    23. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos & David Sondermann, 2008. "European Stock Markets and the ECB's Monetary Policy Surprises," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 117-130, August.
    24. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    25. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2004. "Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets," Working Paper Series 354, European Central Bank.
    26. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "What News Drive Variation in Swiss and US Bond and Stock Excess Returns?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(2), pages 89-118, June.
    27. McMillan, David G., 2013. "Consumption and stock prices: Evidence from a small international panel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 76-88.
    28. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2010. "The dividend-price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 585-605, September.
    29. Basistha, Arabinda & Kurov, Alexander, 2008. "Macroeconomic cycles and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2606-2616, December.
    30. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    31. McQuade, Peter & Falagiarda, Matteo & Tirpák, Marcel, 2015. "Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policies on non-euro area EU countries: evidence from an event-study analysis," Working Paper Series 1869, European Central Bank.
    32. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    33. Angeloni,Ignazio & Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642, Enero-Abr.
    34. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 523-543, December.
    35. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "The Euribor Futures Market: Efficiency and the Impact of ECB Policy Announcements," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, March.
    36. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Ehrmann, 2003. "Monetary transmission in the euro area: early evidence [‘Micro effects of macro announcements: real-time price discovery in foreign exchange’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 469-501.
    37. Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates - A High-Frequency Identification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 90-95, May.
    38. Falagiarda, Matteo & Reitz, Stefan, 2015. "Announcements of ECB unconventional programs: Implications for the sovereign spreads of stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 276-295.
    39. Whitney Newey & Kenneth West, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    40. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    41. Lilia Karnizova & Hashmat Khan, 2015. "The stock market and the consumer confidence channel: evidence from Canada," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 551-573, September.
    42. Long Chen & Xinlei Zhao, 2009. "Return Decomposition," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5213-5249, December.
    43. Ehrmann, Michael & Backé, Peter, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?," Working Paper Series 240, European Central Bank.
    44. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    45. Haitsma, Reinder & Unalmis, Deren & de Haan, Jakob, 2016. "The impact of the ECB's conventional and unconventional monetary policies on stock markets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 101-116.
    46. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    47. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paulo Maio, 2014. "Another Look at the Stock Return Response to Monetary Policy Actions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 321-371.
    2. Haitsma, Reinder & Unalmis, Deren & de Haan, Jakob, 2016. "The impact of the ECB's conventional and unconventional monetary policies on stock markets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 101-116.
    3. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    4. Haitsma, Reinder & Unalmis, Deren & de Haan, Jakob, 2016. "The impact of the ECB's conventional and unconventional monetary policies on stock markets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 101-116.
    5. Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    6. Nave, Juan M. & Ruiz, Javier, 2025. "Stock market sensitivities to European monetary policy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    7. Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "The Good? The Bad? The Ugly? Which news drive (co)variation in Swiss and US bond and stock excess returns?," Working Papers 2014-01, Swiss National Bank.
    8. Alexandros Kontonikas & Charles Nolan & Zivile Zekaite, 2015. "Always and Everywhere Inflation? Treasuries Variance Decomposition and the Impact of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2015_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    9. Lawrenz, Jochen & Zorn, Josef, 2018. "Decomposing the predictive power of local and global financial valuation ratios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 137-149.
    10. Alexandros Kontonikas & Paulo Maio & Zivile Zekaite, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Bond Returns," Working Papers 2016_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    11. Jean-Yves Filbien & Fabien Labondance, 2012. "Reactions Des Marches D’Actions De La Zone Euro Aux Annonces Non Anticipees De La Bce," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 55(2), pages 179-204.
    12. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & Reilly, Gerard O., 2010. "Monetary policy surprises and international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 988-1002, October.
    13. Pacicco, Fausto & Vena, Luigi & Venegoni, Andrea, 2019. "Market reactions to ECB policy innovations: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 126-137.
    14. Sun, Yulong, 2024. "Prices and returns: Role of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    15. Alexander Kurov, 2012. "What determines the stock market's reaction to monetary policy statements?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 175-187, November.
    16. Maio, Paulo & Xu, Danielle, 2020. "Cash-flow or return predictability at long horizons? The case of earnings yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 172-192.
    17. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang, 2023. "Cross-sectional uncertainty and expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 321-340.
    18. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q. & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2012. "Pitfalls in VAR based return decompositions: A clarification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1255-1265.
    19. Kroencke, Tim A. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2021. "The FOMC Risk Shift," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 21-39.
    20. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Measuring the Signaling Effect of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme at the Effective Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 87084, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:46-63. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.