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Monetary policy surprises and international bond markets

Author

Listed:
  • Donal Bredin
  • Stuart Hyde
  • Gerard O'Reilly

Abstract

We examine the impact and possible pillovers effects of unanticipated monetary policy on international bond returns. First, we decompose international bond returns into news regarding future returns, real interest rates and future inflation in the spirit of Campbell and Ammer (1993) for Germany, the UK and the US. We next assess how excess bond returns in these three countries are affected by surprise changes in monetary policy in each country. Our measure of the unanticipated element of monetary policy is based on futures markets rather than the more traditional vector autoregression. Our results indicate that excess bond returns primarily react to domestic as compared to foreign monetary policy surprises. We also find there is a strong divergence between the effects of domestic monetary on excess bond returns in Germany relative to the UK with a surprise monetary tightening in former(latter) leading to a rise(fall)in the excess holding period return and this appears to be driven by news regarding lower(higher) inflation expectations and could be potentially rationalised by differences in the credibility of the monetary policy authority in each country.

Suggested Citation

  • Donal Bredin & Stuart Hyde & Gerard O'Reilly, 2006. "Monetary policy surprises and international bond markets," Centre for Financial Markets Working Papers 10197/1160, Research Repository, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:rru:cfmwps:10197/1160
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    Cited by:

    1. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2022. "Extreme dependence between structural oil shocks and stock markets in GCC countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Marc Anderes & Alexander Rathke & Sina Streicher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2021. "The role of ECB communication in guiding markets," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 351-383, March.
    3. Mihaela NICOLAU, 2010. "Financial Markets Interactions between Economic Theory and Practice," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 27-36.
    4. Soni, Rajat Kumar & Nandan, Tanuj, 2022. "Modeling Covid-19 contagious effect between asset markets and commodity futures in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Alexandros Kontonikas & Paulo Maio & Zivile Zekaite, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Bond Returns," Working Papers 2016_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    6. Florackis, Chris & Kostakis, Alexandros & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2011. "Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-31, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    7. Fiordelisi, Franco & Galloppo, Giuseppe & Ricci, Ornella, 2014. "The effect of monetary policy interventions on interbank markets, equity indices and G-SIFIs during financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 49-61.
    8. Simon Gilchrist & Vivian Yue & Egon Zakrajšek, 2019. "U.S. Monetary Policy and International Bond Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(S1), pages 127-161, December.
    9. León, Ángel & Sebestyén, Szabolcs, 2012. "New measures of monetary policy surprises and jumps in interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2323-2343.
    10. Alexandros Kontonikas & Charles Nolan & Zivile Zekaite, 2015. "Always and Everywhere Inflation? Treasuries Variance Decomposition and the Impact of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2015_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    11. Fausch, Jürg & Sigonius, Markus, 2018. "The impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on the German stock market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 46-63.
    12. Chris Florackis & Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2010. "Transmission of macro-liquidity shocks to liquidity-sorted stock portfolios’ returns: The role of the financial crisis," Working Papers 2011_22, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 2011.
    13. Jonathan Kearns & Andreas Schrimpf & Fan Dora Xia, 2023. "Explaining Monetary Spillovers: The Matrix Reloaded," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1535-1568, September.
    14. Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2014. "Interest rate risk and the creation of the Monetary Policy Committee: Evidence from banks’ and life insurance companies’ stocks in the UK," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 45-67.
    15. Deven Bathia & Don Bredin & Dirk Nitzsche, 2016. "International Sentiment Spillovers in Equity Returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 332-359, October.
    16. Bernd Hayo & Britta Niehof, 2011. "Identification Through Heteroscedasticity in a Multicountry and Multimarket Framework," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201124, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    17. Arestis, Philip & Phelps, Peter, 2017. "Financial market implications of monetary policy coincidences: Evidence from the UK and Euro Area government-bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 88-102.
    18. Papadamou, Stephanos & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2017. "Interest rate dynamic effect on stock returns and central bank transparency: Evidence from emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 951-962.
    19. Akhtar, Shumi & Akhtar, Farida & Jahromi, Maria & John, Kose, 2017. "Impact of interest rate surprises on Islamic and conventional stocks and bonds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 218-231.
    20. John H. Rogers & Chiara Scotti & Jonathan H. Wright, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1827-1850, December.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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