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Dividend Predictability Around the World

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  • Rangvid, Jesper
  • Schmeling, Maik
  • Schrimpf, Andreas

Abstract

The common perception in the literature, mainly based on U.S. data, is that current dividend yields are uninformative about future dividends. We show that this finding changes substantially when looking at a broad international panel of countries, as aggregate dividend growth rates are found to be highly predictable by the dividend yield in medium-sized and smaller countries, but generally not in larger countries. We also show that dividend predictability is weaker in countries where the typical firm is larger and idiosyncratic dividend growth and return volatilities are lower. We find that the reason why dividends in countries with large and more stable firms are more difficult to predict is that these types of firms smooth their dividend more, and dividend smoothing disconnects movements in future dividends from dividend yield fluctuations making dividends difficult to predict. We finally show that in countries where the quality of institutions is high, dividend predictability is weaker. These findings indicate that the apparent lack of dividend predictability in the U.S. does not, in general, extend to other countries. Rather, dividend predictability is driven by cross-country differences in firm characteristics, dividend smoothing, and institutions.
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  • Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2014. "Dividend Predictability Around the World," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(5-6), pages 1255-1277, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:49:y:2014:i:5-6:p:1255-1277_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Cho, Jin Seo & Kim, Tae-hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2015. "Quantile cointegration in the autoregressive distributed-lag modeling framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 281-300.
    2. Cenedese, Gino & Mallucci, Enrico, 2016. "What moves international stock and bond markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 94-113.
    3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2016. "Consumption, wealth, stock and housing returns: Evidence from emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 562-578.
    4. Gino Cenedese & Richard Payne & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2016. "What Do Stock Markets Tell Us about Exchange Rates?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1045-1080.
    5. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    6. David Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2017. "Predicting returns on asset markets of a small, open economy and the influence of global risks," Working Papers 2017-14, Swiss National Bank.
    7. McMillan, David G., 2014. "Stock return, dividend growth and consumption growth predictability across markets and time: Implications for stock price movement," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 90-101.
    8. repec:eee:jfinec:v:127:y:2018:i:2:p:248-263 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Koijen, Ralph & van Binsbergen, Jules H., 2015. "The Term Structure of Returns: Facts and Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 10633, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Møller, Stig V. & Sander, Magnus, 2017. "Dividends, earnings, and predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 153-163.
    11. Jose Ignacio Lopez, 2018. "Predictibilidad del Mercado Accionario Colombiano," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 016086, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    12. Rocha Armada, Manuel J. & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2015. "Consumption growth, preference for smoothing, changes in expectations and risk premium," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 80-97.
    13. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2017. "International stock return predictability: Evidence from new statistical tests," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 97-113.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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