Volatility Tests and Efficient Markets: A Review Essay
This essay examines what volatility tests tell us about the data and what implications we should derive from them. It argues that volatility tests do not tell us that "prices are too volatile", implying that "markets are inefficient", but rather that "(discounted) returns are forecastable", implying that "current discount rate models leave a residual". It also argues that the discount rate residuals documented by volatility tests (and equivalent return forecasting regressions or Euler equation tests) are suggestive of rational, business cycle-induced discount rate movements, rather than "fads" or other inefficiencies.
|Date of creation:||Jan 1991|
|Publication status:||published as Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 27, pp.463-485, (1991).|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
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- Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988.
"Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
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- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Cochrane, John H, 1992.
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- N. Gregory Mankiw & David H. Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1989.
"Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal,"
NBER Working Papers
3154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1991. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 455-477.
- Mankiw, N.G. & Romer, D. & Shapiro, M.D., 1989. "Stock Market Forecastability And Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," Papers 89-21, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
- Hamilton, James D. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1985. "The observable implications of self-fulfilling expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 353-373, November.
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