Asset Price Volatility, Bubbles, and Process Switching
Evidence of excess volatilities of asset prices compared with those of market fundamentals is often attributed to speculative bubbles. This study examines the sense in which speculative bubbles could in theory lead to excess volatility, hut it demonstrates that some of the variance hounds evidence reported to date precludes bubbles as a reason why asset prices might violate such hounds. The findings must represent some other model misspecffication or market inefficiency. One important misspecification occurs when there searcher incorrectly specifies the time series properties of market fundamentals. A bubble-free example economy characterized by a potential switch in government policies produces paths of asset prices that would appear, to an unwary researcher, to contain bubbles.
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Volume (Year): 41 (1986)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-70, August.
- Sanford J. Grossman & Robert J. Shiller, 1980.
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1584-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
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- LeRoy, Stephen F, 1984. "Efficiency and the Variability of Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 183-87, May.
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- Marsh, Terry A. & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Earnings variablility and variance bounds tests for the rationality of stock market prices," Working papers 1559-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Singleton, Kenneth J, 1980. "Expectations Models of the Term Structure and Implied Variance Bounds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1159-76, December.
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- Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
- Flavin, Marjorie A, 1983. "Excess Volatility in the Financial Markets: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 929-56, December.
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