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Business Fixed Investment and "Bubbles": The Japanese Case

  • Chirinko, Robert S.

    (Department of Economics, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia)

  • Schaller, Huntley

    (Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey)

The two key questions which motivate our work are: do bubbles exist (in the sense that stock market prices do not always correspond to the present value of expected future profitability) and, if bubbles exist, do they have an effect on business fixed investment? The case of Japan is particularly interesting because of the dramatic movements in the Japanese stock market and the wide perception that these were associated with a bubble. We use a variety of techniques to analyze these questions. Fist, we examine financing and investment patterns to gauge firms' reactions to the 1980s stock market run-up. Second, we test subsets of the orthogonality conditions associated with the empirical first-order conditions for fixed investment. Third, we use a linear projection to decompose stock market prices into fundamental and bubble components, allowing us to carry out parametric estimates of the effect of the bubble component on fixed investment. The data strongly suggest that there was a bubble that had an economically important statistically significant effect on business fixed investment in Japan.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-28.pdf
File Function: First version, 1996
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Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 28.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Mar 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:28
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  1. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
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  17. Kenneth D. West & David W. Wilcox, 1993. "Some evidence on finite sample behavior of an instrumental variables estimator of the linear quadratic inventory model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Blanchard, O. & Rhee, C. & Summers, L., 1990. "The Stock Market, Profit And Investment," RCER Working Papers 233, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  19. Michael E. Porter, 1992. "Capital Choices: Changing The Way America Invests In Industry," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 5(2), pages 4-16.
  20. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  21. Hayashi, Fumio & Inoue, Tohru, 1991. "The Relation between Firm Growth and Q with Multiple Capital Goods: Theory and Evidence from Panel Data on Japanese Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 731-53, May.
  22. Whited, Toni M, 1992. " Debt, Liquidity Constraints, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1425-60, September.
  23. Ben S. Bernanke, 1993. "Credit in the macroeconomy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Spr, pages 50-70.
  24. Franklin Allen & Gary Gorton, 1993. "Churning Bubbles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 813-836.
  25. Hoshi, Takeo & Kashyap, Anil & Scharfstein, David, 1990. "The role of banks in reducing the costs of financial distress in Japan," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 67-88, September.
  26. Josef Lakonishok & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1993. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 84, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
  27. Chirinko, Robert S., 1993. "Multiple capital inputs, Q, and investment spending," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 907-928.
  28. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
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  31. Ueda, Kazuo, 1990. "Are Japanese stock prices too high?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 351-370, December.
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