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Misspecified Recovery

Author

Listed:
  • Jaroslav Borovicka

    (New York University)

  • Lars Peter Hansen

    (University of Chicago and NBER)

  • Jose A. Scheinkman

    (Columbia University, Princeton University and NBER)

Abstract

Asset prices contain information about the probability distribution of future states and the stochastic discounting of those states as used by investors. To better understand the challenge in distinguishing investors' beliefs from risk-adjusted discounting, we use Perron-Frobenius Theory to isolate a positive martingale component of the stochastic discount factor process. This component recovers a probability measure that absorbs long-term risk adjustments. When the martingale is not degenerate, surmising that this recovered probability captures investors' beliefs distorts inference about risk-return tradeoffs. Stochastic discount factors in many structural models of asset prices have empirically relevant martingale components.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaroslav Borovicka & Lars Peter Hansen & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2015. "Misspecified Recovery," Working Papers 063_2014, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:metric:063_2014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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