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Term Structures of Asset Prices and Returns

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  • David Backus
  • Nina Boyarchenko
  • Mikhail Chernov

Abstract

We explore the term structures of claims to a variety of cash flows, namely, U.S. government bonds (claims to dollars), foreign government bonds (claims to foreign currency), inflation-adjusted bonds (claims to the price index), and equity (claims to future equity indexes or dividends). The average term structures reflect the dynamics of the dollar pricing kernel, cash flow growth, and the interaction between the two. We use an affine model to illustrate how these two components can deliver term structures with a wide range of levels and shapes. Finally, we calibrate a representative agent economy to show that the evidence we document is consistent with the equilibrium models.

Suggested Citation

  • David Backus & Nina Boyarchenko & Mikhail Chernov, 2016. "Term Structures of Asset Prices and Returns," NBER Working Papers 22162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22162
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Irina Zviadadze, 2017. "Term Structure of Risk on Macrofinance Models," 2017 Meeting Papers 965, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Pierlauro Lopez & David Lopez-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2018. "Risk-Adjusted Linearizations of Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Working papers 702, Banque de France.
    3. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.
    4. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Riccardo Colacito, 2019. "The Term Structures of Coentropy in International Financial Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3541-3558, August.
    5. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly, 2018. "Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 133(1), pages 71-127.
    6. Likuan Qin & Vadim Linetsky, 2016. "The Long Bond, Long Forward Measure and Long-Term Factorization in Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models," Papers 1610.00818, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.
    7. Likuan Qin & Vadim Linetsky, 2016. "Long-Term Factorization of Affine Pricing Kernels," Papers 1610.00778, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.
    8. Likuan Qin & Vadim Linetsky, 2018. "Long-term factorization in Heath–Jarrow–Morton models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 621-641, July.
    9. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Nguyen, Thong Trung, 2020. "“Small things matter most”: The spillover effects in the cryptocurrency market and gold as a silver bullet," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Likuan Qin & Vadim Linetsky & Yutian Nie, 2016. "Long Forward Probabilities, Recovery and the Term Structure of Bond Risk Premiums," Papers 1601.06477, arXiv.org.
    11. Zviadadze, Irina, 2018. "Term Structure of Risk in Expected Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 13414, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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