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The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia

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  • Hanno Lustig
  • Andreas Stathopoulos
  • Adrien Verdelhan

Abstract

Fixing the investment horizon, the returns to currency carry trades decrease as the maturity of the foreign bonds increases. The local currency term premia, which increase with the maturity, offset the currency risk premia. The time-series predictability of foreign bond returns in dollars similarly declines with the bonds' maturities. Leading no-arbitrage models in international finance cannot match the downward term structure of currency carry trade risk premia. We derive a simple preference-free condition that no-arbitrage models need to satisfy to match the carry trade risk premia on long term bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanno Lustig & Andreas Stathopoulos & Adrien Verdelhan, 2013. "The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 19623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19623
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    Cited by:

    1. Backus, David & Boyarchenko, Nina & Chernov, Mikhail, 2018. "Term structures of asset prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. Thomas Eisenbach & Martin Schmalz & Marianne Andries, 2015. "Asset Pricing with Horizon-Dependent Risk Aversion," 2015 Meeting Papers 1069, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Mikhail Chernov & Lars A Lochstoer & Stig R H Lundeby, 2022. "Conditional Dynamics and the Multihorizon Risk-Return Trade-Off," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 1310-1347.
    5. Marianne Andries & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Martin C. Schmalz, 2014. "Horizon-Dependent Risk Aversion and the Timing and Pricing of Uncertainty," Staff Reports 703, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Ferdinand Dreher & Johannes Gräb & Thomas Kostka, 2020. "From carry trades to curvy trades," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 758-780, March.
    7. Irina Zviadadze, 2017. "Term Structure of Consumption Risk Premia in the Cross Section of Currency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1529-1566, August.
    8. Mantzura, Ariel & Schreiber, Ben Z., 2019. "Predicting foreign investors’ carry trade activity in the Israeli FX market using a time-varying currency risk premium approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 438-457.
    9. S. Mouabbi, 2014. "An arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel term structure model with stochastic volatility for the determination of currency risk premia," Working papers 527, Banque de France.
    10. Thomas A. Maurer & Thuy-Duong Tô & Ngoc-Khanh Tran, 2019. "Pricing Risks Across Currency Denominations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(11), pages 5308-5336, November.
    11. Zhengyang Jiang, 2019. "US Fiscal Cycle and the Dollar," 2019 Meeting Papers 667, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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