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Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?

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  • Hanno Lustig
  • Adrien Verdelhan

Abstract

Compared to the predictions of complete market models, actual exchange rates are puzzlingly smooth and only weakly correlated with macro-economic fundamentals, suggesting that market incompleteness plays a key role in exchange rate dynamics. Incompleteness in international financial markets introduces a stochastic wedge between the growth rates of marginal utility at home and abroad, and the change in the exchange rate. We derive a preference-free upper bound on the effects of the FX wedges. Even if domestic agents can invest only in the foreign risk-free asset, incomplete spanning fails to simultaneously match the exchange rate volatility, cyclicality and the FX risk premia in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2016. "Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 22023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Chien, YiLi & Lustig, Hanno & Naknoi, Kanda, 2015. "Why Are Exchange Rates So Smooth? A Household Finance Explanation," Working Papers 2015-39, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 26 Sep 2017.
    6. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1139-1180.
    7. Kollmann, Robert, 1996. "Incomplete asset markets and the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 945-961, May.
    8. Riccardo Colacito & Mariano M. Croce, 2011. "Risks for the Long Run and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 153-181.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:s1:p:s42-s58 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Lewis, Karen K. & Liu, Edith X., 2017. "Disaster risk and asset returns: An international perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 42-58.
    3. Gurdip Bakshi & Mario Cerrato & John Crosby, 2016. "Studying the Implications of Consumption and Asset Return Data for Stochastic Discount Factors in Incomplete International Economies," Working Papers 2017_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    4. Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2018. "Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 24439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Nessrine Hamzaoui & Boutheina Regaieg, 2016. "The Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic approach to investigating the foreign exchange forward premium volatility," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1608-1615.
    6. Jonathan J Adams & Philip Barrett, 2017. "Resolving International Macro Puzzles with Imperfect Risk Sharing and Global Solution Methods," Working Papers 001003, University of Florida, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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