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Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate

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  • Zhengyang Jiang
  • Arvind Krishnamurthy
  • Hanno Lustig

Abstract

We develop a theory that links the U.S. dollar’s valuation in FX markets to the convenience yield that foreign investors derive from holding U.S. safe assets. We show that this convenience yield can be inferred from the Treasury basis: the yield gap between U.S. government and currency-hedged foreign government bonds. Consistent with the theory, a widening of the basis coincides with an immediate appreciation and a subsequent depreciation of the dollar. Our results lend empirical support to models which impute a special role to the U.S. as the world’s provider of safe assets and the dollar, the world’s reserve currency.

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  • Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2018. "Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 24439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24439
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