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Global trends in interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Del Negro
  • Domenico Giannone
  • Marc Giannoni
  • Andrea Tambalotti

Abstract

The trend in the world real interest rate for safe and liquid assets fluctuated close to 2 percent for more than a century, but has dropped significantly over the past three decades. This decline has been common among advanced economies, as trends in real interest rates across countries have converged over this period. It was driven by an increase in the convenience yield for safety and liquidity and by lower global economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Global trends in interest rates," Staff Reports 866, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:866
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    3. Beyer, Robert & Milivojevic, Lazar, 2021. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," IMFS Working Paper Series 146, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    4. Johnston, Lauren A., 2020. "China’s Economic Demography Transition Strategy: A Population Weighted Approach to the Economy and Policy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 593, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Maurice Obstfeld, 2020. "Global Dimensions of U.S. Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 73-132, February.
    6. Enrique Martinez-Garcia, 2020. "Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest," Globalization Institute Working Papers 403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Mohamed Belkhir & Sami Ben Naceur & Ralph Chami & Anis Semet, 2019. "Bank Capital and the Cost of Equity," IMF Working Papers 2019/265, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Engel, Charles, 2020. "Safe U.S. Assets and U.S. Capital Flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    9. van Riet Ad, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Unnatural Low Interest Rates: Secular Stagnation or Financial Repression?," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 70(2), pages 99-135, August.
    10. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Gantumur, Munkhbayar, 2020. "Measuring the natural rate of interest in a commodity exporting economy: Evidence from Mongolia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 199-218.
    11. Maurice Obstfeld, 2020. "Harry Johnson's “Case for flexible exchange rates”—50 years later," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 86-113, September.
    12. Jan Willem van den End, 2019. "Effects of QE on sovereign bond spreads through the safe asset channel," DNB Working Papers 647, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Mireille Jaeger, 2019. "La faiblesse du taux d'intérêt exprime-t-elle de nouvelles préférences de notre société à l'égard du futur ?," Post-Print halshs-02168824, HAL.
    14. Wang, Olivier, 2020. "Banks, low interest rates, and monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 2492, European Central Bank.
    15. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Niu, 2021. "A Semiparametric Model for Bond Pricing with Life Cycle Fundamental," Working Papers 2021-01-06, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    16. Chris Edmond & Richard Holden & Bruce Preston, 2020. "Should We Worry about Government Debt? Thoughts on Australia's COVID‐19 Response," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(4), pages 557-565, December.
    17. Valerie Grossman & Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Mark A. Wynne & Ren Zhang, 2019. "Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies," Globalization Institute Working Papers 359, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    18. Qiao Wang & Haizhen Yang & Xiangjuan Cheng, 2020. "Impact of Global Low Interest Rates to the Capital Flows and Financial Vulnerability of Small Open Economies," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(4), pages 449-468, April.
    19. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Liu, 2021. "Interest Rates and Aggregate Life Cycle Determinants," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202102, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2021.
    20. Clemens Fuest & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "Low Interest Rates: Global Causes and Policy Implications for Germany," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(01), pages 3-6, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    convenience yield; world interest rate; VAR with common trends; interest rate parity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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