IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2016-80.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Understanding the New Normal : The Role of Demographics

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Since the onset of the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has experienced low real GDP growth and low real interest rates, including for long maturities. We show that these developments were largely predictable by calibrating an overlapping-generation model with a rich demographic structure to observed and projected changes in U.S. population, family composition, life expectancy, and labor market activity. The model accounts for a 1?percentage point decline in both real GDP growth and the equilibrium real interest rate since 1980?essentially all of the permanent declines in those variables according to some recent estimates. The model also implies that these declines were especially pronounced over the past decade or so because of demographic factors most-directly associated with the baby boom and the passing of the information technology boom. Our results further suggest that real GDP growth and real interest rates will remain low in coming decades, consistent with the U.S economy having reached a ?new normal.?

Suggested Citation

  • Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & J. David López-Salido, 2016. "Understanding the New Normal : The Role of Demographics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-080, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-80
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2016.080
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2016/files/2016080pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Browning & Mette Ejrnæs, 2009. "Consumption and Children," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 93-111, February.
    2. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2016. "The Expected Real Interest Rate in the Long Run : Time Series Evidence with the Effective Lower Bound," FEDS Notes 2016-02-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van de Ven, Justin, 2011. "A structural dynamic microsimulation model of household savings and labour supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2054-2070, July.
    2. Feigenbaum, James, 2008. "Can mortality risk explain the consumption hump?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 844-872, September.
    3. Klos, Alexander & Rottke, Simon, 2013. "Saving and Consumption When Children Move Out," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79786, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Strulik, Holger, 2018. "The return to education in terms of wealth and health," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Stanley Fischer, 2016. "Reflections on Macroeconomics Then and Now : a speech at the \"Policy Challenges in an Interconnected World\" 32nd Annual National Association for Business Economics Economic Policy Conferen," Speech 892, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Thomas F. Crossley & Krishna Pendakur, 2002. "Consumption Inequality," Department of Economics Working Papers 2002-09, McMaster University.
    7. Caliendo, Frank & Huang, Kevin X.D., 2008. "Overconfidence and consumption over the life cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1347-1369, December.
    8. Martina Kirchberger, 2014. "Preferences over Leisure and Consumption of Siblings and Intra-Household Allocation," Economics Series Working Papers 713, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Apps, Patricia & Rees, Ray, 2004. "Life Cycle Time Allocation and Saving in an Imperfect Capital Market," IZA Discussion Papers 1036, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Bick, Alexander & Choi, Sekyu, 2013. "Revisiting the effect of household size on consumption over the life-cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2998-3011.
    11. Mauro Mastrogiacomo & Nicole Bosch, 2006. "Income incentives to labour participation and home production; the contribution of the tax credits in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 59, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Dragone, Davide & Strulik, Holger, 2020. "Negligible senescence: An economic life cycle model for the future," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 264-285.
    13. Mariarosaria Comunale & Jonas Striaukas, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy: Interest Rates and Low Inflation. A Review of Literature and Methods," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 13, Bank of Lithuania.
    14. James Banks & Richard Blundell & James P. Smith, 2003. "Understanding Differences in Household Financial Wealth between the United States and Great Britain," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(2).
    15. Brighita Negrusa & Sonia Oreffice, 2011. "Sexual orientation and household financial decisions: evidence from couples in the United States," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 445-463, December.
    16. Sánchez-Romero, Miguel & Sambt, Jože & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2013. "Quantifying the role of alternative pension reforms on the Austrian economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 94-114.
    17. Michael Dotsey & Wenli Li & Fang Yang, 2014. "Consumption And Time Use Over The Life Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 665-692, August.
    18. Feigenbaum James A. & Li Geng, 2012. "Life Cycle Dynamics of Income Uncertainty and Consumption," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-49, May.
    19. Lael Brainard, 2016. "The Economic Outlook and Implications for Monetary Policy: a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, Washington, D.C., June 3, 2016," Speech 899, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Lael Brainard, 2018. "What Do We Mean by Neutral and What Role Does It Play in Monetary Policy?: a speech at the Detroit Economic Club, Detroit, Michigan," Speech 1011, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographics; Equilibrium real interest rate; GDP growth; New normal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.