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The demographic deficit

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  • Cooley, Thomas
  • Henriksen, Espen

Abstract

There has been a slowdown in growth in the world’s most advanced economies. In this paper we argue that changing demographics, in particular aging populations combined with increased life expectancy, may be part of the explanation for why we observe slower growth, falling interest rates and falling productivity growth. Using Japan and the U.S. in the years prior to the financial crises as a case study, we provide estimates of the growth deficit that arises from an aging cohort structure and increasing life expectancy. We also provide projections of the impact of predictable demographic changes on future growth in the U.S. and Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • Cooley, Thomas & Henriksen, Espen, 2018. "The demographic deficit," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 45-62.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:93:y:2018:i:c:p:45-62
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.11.005
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    Cited by:

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    4. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Peretto, Pietro F. & Valente, Simone, 2021. "Wealth creation, wealth dilution and demography," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 441-459.
    5. Andrea Papetti, 2021. "Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1333, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Thomas F. Cooley & Espen Henriksen & Charlie Nusbaum, 2019. "Demographic Obstacles to European Growth," NBER Working Papers 26503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho & Kikkawa, Aiko, 2021. "Aging, automation, and productivity in Korea1," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Mammen, Enno & Martínez-Miranda, María Dolores & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Vogt, Michael, 2021. "Calendar effect and in-sample forecasting," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 31-52.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortality; Fertility; Life-cycle saving; Labor supply; Growth accounting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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