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Workforce Aging and Potential Output Growth

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  • Mathilde Esposito

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In the literature on secular stagnation, demographic aging is widely blamed for lowering the IS curve of aggregate demand and therefore the natural interest rate. However, very little is said about the impact of workforce aging on long-term aggregate supply, or so-called potential GDP. To fill this gap, this study delves into the effects of workforce aging on two key components of the remarkably sluggish potential GDP growth of developed countries: hours worked and labour productivity. First, using a novel macro-accounting decomposition of EU-KLEMS data, we find that old-labour input has the highest contribution to growth, through both increased hours worked and shifts in labour composition in the EU, US and Japan. Second, we use panel stochastic frontier models highlighting that, however, old workers have an adverse effect on labour productivity growth frontier—though increasing technical efficiency, i.e., reducing the distance to this frontier.

Suggested Citation

  • Mathilde Esposito, 2024. "Workforce Aging and Potential Output Growth," Working Papers hal-04747557, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04747557
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04747557v1
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    Cited by:

    1. Gilles Dufrénot & Mathilde Esposito & Eva Moreno Galbis, 2024. "Demographic Winter, Economic Structure and Productivity in Japan," Working Papers hal-04752424, HAL.
    2. Gilles Dufrénot & Mathilde Esposito & Eva Moreno-Galbis, 2024. "Demographic Winter, Economic Structure and Productivity in Japan," AMSE Working Papers 2426, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic Aging; Potential Growth; Labour Input; Stochastic Frontier Analysis; Labour Productivity; EU-KLEMS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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