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From secular stagnation to robocalypse? Implications of demographic and technological changes

Author

Listed:
  • Henrique S. Basso

    (Banco de España)

  • Juan F. Jimeno

    (Banco de España, CEPR and IZA)

Abstract

Demographic change and automation are two main structural trends shaping the macroeconomy in the next decades. We present a general equilibrium model with a tractable life-cycle structure that allows the investigation of the main transmission mechanisms by which demography and technology affect economic growth. Due to a trade-off between innovation and automation, lower fertility and population ageing lead to reductions in GDP per capita growth and the labour income share. During the demographic transition, the extent growth and factor shares are affected depends on alternative labour market confi gurations and scenarios for the integration of robots in economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Henrique S. Basso & Juan F. Jimeno, 2020. "From secular stagnation to robocalypse? Implications of demographic and technological changes," Working Papers 2004, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:2004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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