IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/1528.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends

Author

Listed:
  • Yunus Aksoy

    (University of London)

  • Ron P. Smith

    (University of London)

  • Tobias Grasl

    (University of London)

  • Henrique S. Basso

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

The effect of changes in demographic structure on medium-run trends of key macroeconomic variables is estimated using a panel VAR of 21 OECD economies. The panel data variability assists the identication of direct effects of demographics, while the dynamic structure uncovers long-term effects. Young and old dependants are found to have a negative impact while workers contribute positively. We propose a theoretical model, highlighting the relationship between demographics, innovation and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of population aging and reduced fertility is found to reduce output growth and real interest rates across OECD countries

Suggested Citation

  • Yunus Aksoy & Ron P. Smith & Tobias Grasl & Henrique S. Basso, 2015. "Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends," Working Papers 1528, Banco de España.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1528
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/15/Fich/dt1528e.pdf
    File Function: First version, October 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    2. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra, 2014. "A Model of Secular Stagnation," NBER Working Papers 20574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Fair, Ray C & Dominguez, Kathryn M, 1991. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1276-1294, December.
    4. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-369, May.
    5. James Liang & Hui Wang & Edward P. Lazear, 2018. "Demographics and Entrepreneurship," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(S1), pages 140-196.
    6. Slacalek Jiri, 2009. "What Drives Personal Consumption? The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, October.
    7. Gary Koop & M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 2013. "On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 300-314, July.
    8. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    9. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Smith, Ron, 2006. "Unobserved heterogeneity in panel time series models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2361-2380, May.
    10. Ufuk Akcigit & Murat Celik & Daron Acemoglu, 2014. "Young, Restless and Creative: Openness to Disruption and Creative Innovations," 2014 Meeting Papers 377, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Ivana Komunjer & Serena Ng, 2011. "Dynamic Identification of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1995-2032, November.
    12. Vincent Sterk & Silvana Tenreyro, 2013. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Operations through Redistributions and Durable Purchases," CEP Discussion Papers dp1249, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    14. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 1999. "Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950-1990," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 431-449.
    15. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
    16. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
    17. Favero, Carlo A. & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2015. "Demographics and the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 10887, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Benjamin F. Jones, 2010. "Age and Great Invention," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-14, February.
    19. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
    20. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-283, April.
    21. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst, 2013. "Deconstructing Life Cycle Expenditure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(3), pages 437-492.
    22. Ferrero, Andrea, 2010. "A structural decomposition of the U.S. trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 478-490, May.
    23. Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 61-110, June.
    24. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    25. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2009. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 804-826, June.
    26. Cheolbeom Park, 2011. "How does changing age distribution impact stock prices? a nonparametric approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 886-887, August.
    27. Juan F. Jimeno, 2015. "Long-lasting consequences of the European crisis," Working Papers 1522, Banco de España.
    28. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
    29. Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
    30. Vilsa Curto & Liran Einav & Amy Finkelstein & Jonathan Levin & Jay Bhattacharya, 2019. "Health Care Spending and Utilization in Public and Private Medicare," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 302-332, April.
    31. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    32. Baltagi, Badi H. & Griffin, James M., 1997. "Pooled estimators vs. their heterogeneous counterparts in the context of dynamic demand for gasoline," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 303-327, April.
    33. Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds," NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    35. Badi H. Baltagi & James M. Griffin & Weiwen Xiong, 2000. "To Pool Or Not To Pool: Homogeneous Versus Hetergeneous Estimations Applied to Cigarette Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 117-126, February.
    36. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yunus Aksoy & Tobias Grasl & Ron P. Smith, 2012. "The Economic Impact of Demographic Structure in OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3960, CESifo.
    2. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    3. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Nechio, Fernanda, 2016. "Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 208-226.
    4. Kim, Myunghyun, 2024. "Declining real interest rates: The role of energy prices in energy importers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Fujita, Shigeru & Fujiwara, Ippei, 2023. "Aging and the real interest rate in Japan: A labor market channel," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Demographics and the Decline in Firm Entry: Lessons from a Life-Cycle Model," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224603, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "When old meets young? Germany's population ageing and the current account," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 315-336.
    8. Stähler, Nikolai, 2021. "The Impact of Aging and Automation on the Macroeconomy and Inequality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Roel van Elk & Marc van der Steeg & Dinand Webbink, 2013. "The effects of a special program for multi-problem school dropouts on educational enrolment, employment and criminal behaviour; Evidence from a field experiment," CPB Discussion Paper 241.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Ho, Paul, 2024. "Estimating the effects of demographics on interest rates: A robust Bayesian perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    11. Basso, Henrique S. & Jimeno, Juan F., 2021. "From secular stagnation to robocalypse? Implications of demographic and technological changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 833-847.
    12. Paul Beaudry & Katsiaryna Kartashova & Césaire A Meh, 2022. "Gazing at r*: A Hysteresis Perspective," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2022-08, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Dec 2022.
    13. Kim, Myunghyun & Song, Sang-yoon, 2022. "The effects of monetary policy on consumption: Workers vs. retirees," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Yukio Fukumoto & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2017. "Age Structure and Trade Openness: An Empirical Investigation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(6), pages 1247-1263, June.
    15. Peñasco, Cristina & del Río, Pablo & Romero-Jordán, Desiderio, 2017. "Gas and electricity demand in Spanish manufacturing industries: An analysis using homogeneous and heterogeneous estimators," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-60.
    16. Drautzburg, Thorsten, 2019. "Entrepreneurial tail risk: Implications for employment dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 85-100.
    17. Annarita Baldanzi & Klaus Prettner & Paul Tscheuschner, 2019. "Longevity-induced vertical innovation and the tradeoff between life and growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1293-1313, October.
    18. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Ferrero, Andrea, 2010. "A structural decomposition of the U.S. trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 478-490, May.
    20. Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "Growth and welfare effects of health care in knowledge-based economies," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 100-119.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population age profile; medium-term; output growth; innovation; lifecycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1528. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ángel Rodríguez. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdegves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.