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Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?

  • David E. Bloom

    ()

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • David Canning

    ()

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Günther Fink

    ()

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Jocelyn Finlay

    ()

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

High ratios of working age to dependent population can yield a increases the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters model with a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980 inclusion of age structure improves the model’s forecasts for the period that including age structure improves the forecast, although there instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000–2020.

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File URL: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2007/PGDA_WP_20.pdf
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Paper provided by Program on the Global Demography of Aging in its series PGDA Working Papers with number 2006.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:2006
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda

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