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Economic Development and the Timing and Components of Population Growth

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  • David E. Bloom
  • Richard B. Freeman

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between population growth and economic growth in developing countries from 1965 to 1985. Our results indicate that developing countries were able to shift their labor force from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors, and to increase productivity within those sectors, despite the rapid growth of their populations. We also find that at given rates of population growth, income growth is related to the time path of population growth and that population growth due to high birth and death rates is associated with slower income growth than population growth due to relatively low birth and death rates. Hence, the timing and components of population growth are important elements in the process of economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Bloom & Richard B. Freeman, 1987. "Economic Development and the Timing and Components of Population Growth," NBER Working Papers 2448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2448
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    1. Barbara Entwisle, 1981. "CBR versus TFR in cross-national fertility research," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 18(4), pages 635-643, November.
    2. David E. Bloom & Richard B. Freeman, 1986. "Population Growth, Labor Supply, and Employment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 1837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    2. Robinson, James A. & Srinivasan, T.N., 1993. "Long-term consequences of population growth: Technological change, natural resources, and the environment," Handbook of Population and Family Economics,in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1175-1298 Elsevier.
    3. Bloom, David E. & Mahal, Ajay S., 1997. "Does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 105-124, March.
    4. Claude Diebolt & Tapas K. Mishra, 2006. "Cliometrics of the Abiding Nexus Between Demographic Components and Economic Development," Working Papers 06-06, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    5. Ahlburg, Dennis & Lindh, Thomas, 2007. "Long-run income forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 533-538.
    6. Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C. & Pernia, Ernesto M., 1999. "Population Growth and Economic Development in the Philippines: What Has Been the Experience and What Must Be Done?," Discussion Papers DP 1999-22, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    7. Giovanna ZANOLLA & Flavio V. RUFFINI & Thomas STREIFENEDER, "undated". "Demographic Dynamics in the Alpine Arc: Recent Trends and Future Developments with Special Focus on Italy," Regional and Urban Modeling 284100050, EcoMod.
    8. World Bank Group, 2017. "Republic of Malawi Poverty Assessment," World Bank Other Operational Studies 26488, The World Bank.
    9. David E. BLOOM & Michael KUHN & Klaus PRETTNER, 2017. "Africa’s Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 63-76, March.
    10. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "The High Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," PGDA Working Papers 3208, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    11. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2016. "Africa’s Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend," VID Working Papers 1604, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    12. Orbeta, Aniceto Jr. C., 2002. "Population and Poverty: A Review of the Links, Evidence and Implications for the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2002-21, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    13. D’Antoni, Jeremy M. & Mishra, Ashok K. & Barkley, Andrew P., 2012. "Feast or flee: Government payments and labor migration from U.S. agriculture," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 181-192.
    14. Hasan, Mohammad S., 2010. "The long-run relationship between population and per capita income growth in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 355-372, May.
    15. Tapas K., MISHRA, 2004. "The Role of Components of Demographic Change in Economic Development : Whither the Trend ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2004023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    16. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2009. "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," NBER Working Papers 14820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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