Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Pflaumer, Peter, 1988. "Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 135-142.
- Richard A. Easterlin, 1968. "Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth: The American Experience," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number east68-1.
- Andrei Rogers & Luis Castro & Megan Lea, 2005. "Model Migration Schedules: Three Alternative Linear Parameter Estimation Methods," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 17-38.
- Ahlburg, Dennis A. & Land, Kenneth C., 1992. "Population forecasting: Guest editors' introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 289-299, November.
- Bos, Eduard & Bulatao, Rodolfo A., 1992. "The demographic impact of AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa : Short- and long-term projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 367-384, November.
- Oliveira, M. M. & Mexia, J. T., 2004. "AIDS in Portugal: endemic versus epidemic forecasting scenarios for mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 131-135.
- Renshaw, A. E. & Haberman, S., 2003. "On the forecasting of mortality reduction factors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 379-401, July.
- Peter Congdon, 1993. "Statistical Graduation in Local Demographic Analysis and Projection," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 156(2), pages 237-270, March.
- Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Stochastic demographic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 315-327, November.
- Wolfgang Lutz & Sergei Scherbov, 1998. "An Expert-Based Framework for Probabilistic National Population Projections: The Example of Austria," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, March.
- Miller, Robert B., 1986. "A bivariate model for total fertility rate and mean age of childbearing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 133-140, April.
- Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S. & Hatzopoulos, P., 1996. "The Modelling of Recent Mortality Trends in United Kingdom Male Assured Lives," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 449-477, June.
- Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
- Carlos Wong-Fupuy & Steven Haberman, 2004. "Projecting Mortality Trends," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 56-83.
- Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 1992. "Stochastic population forecasts and their uses," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 385-391, November.
- Murphy, M.J., 1995. "The Prospect of Mortality: England and Wales and the United States of America, 1962–1989," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 331-350, June.
- Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2001. "The end of world population growth," Nature, Nature, vol. 412(6846), pages 543-545, August.
- Nan Li & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2000. "The solution of time-dependent population models," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 311-329.
- Arthur Renshaw & Steven Haberman, 2003. "Lee–Carter mortality forecasting: a parallel generalized linear modelling approach for England and Wales mortality projections," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 52(1), pages 119-137, January.
- Shripad Tuljapurkar, 1998. "Forecasting Mortality Change," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 127-134.
- Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(6), pages 91-144.
- McDonald, John, 1983. "The emergence of countercyclical US fertility: A reassessment of the evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 421-436.
- Shripad Tuljapurkar & Ronald D. Lee & Qi Li, 2004. "Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts," Working Papers wp073, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Harald Hannerz, 2001. "An extension of relational methods in mortality estimations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 4(10), pages 337-368.
- A. R. Thatcher, 1999. "The long‐term pattern of adult mortality and the highest attained age," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 162(1), pages 5-43.
- Ben D. MacArthur & Richard O. C. Oreffo, 2005. "Bridging the gap," Nature, Nature, vol. 433(7021), pages 19-19, January.
- Long, John F., 1984. "U.S. national population projections methods: A view from four forecasting traditions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 231-239, October.
- Joseph S. B. Mitchell & Jan Karel Lenstra, 1992. "Guest Editors' Introduction," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 4(4), pages 357-359, November.
- Hans-Peter Kohler & Dimiter Philipov, 2001. "Variance effects in the bongaarts-feeney formula," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 1-16, February.
- John Bongaarts, 2005. "Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(1), pages 23-49, February.
- Lee, Ronald D., 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, August.
- Shripad Tuljapurkar, 1997. "Taking the measure of uncertainty," Nature, Nature, vol. 387(6635), pages 760-761, June.
- Tuljapurkar, Shripad & Boe, Carl, 1999. "Validation, probability-weighted priors, and information in stochastic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 259-271, July.
- Ryan D. Edwards & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2005. "Inequality in Life Spans and a New Perspective on Mortality Convergence Across Industrialized Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(4), pages 645-674, December.
- Placek, P.J. & Taffel, S.M. & Smith, J.C. & Maze, J.M., 1981. "Postpartum sterilization in cesarean section and non-cesarean section deliveries: United States, 1970-75," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 71(11), pages 1258-1261.
- Sithole, Terry Z. & Haberman, Steven & Verrall, Richard J., 2000. "An investigation into parametric models for mortality projections, with applications to immediate annuitants' and life office pensioners' data," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-312, December.
- Juha Alho & Jukka Nyblom, 1997. "Mixed estimation of old-age mortality," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 319-330.
- David Bloom & James Trussell, 1984.
"What are the determinants of delayed childbearing and permanent childlessness in the United States?,"
Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 21(4), pages 591-611, November.
- David E. Bloom & James Trussell, 1983. "What Are the Determinants of Delayed Childbearing and Permanent Childlessness in the United States?," NBER Working Papers 1140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ronald Lee, 2000. "The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 80-91.
- A Rogers & R Raquillet & L J Castro, 1978. "Model Migration Schedules and Their Applications," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 10(5), pages 475-502, May.
- Pflaumer, Peter, 1992. "Forecasting US population totals with the Box-Jenkins approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 329-338, November.
- Tom Wilson & Martin Bell, 2004. "Australia's uncertain demographic future," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 11(8), pages 195-234.
- Andrei Rogers, 1988. "Age patterns of elderly migration: An international comparison," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 25(3), pages 355-370, August.
- Nico Keilman, 2001. "Uncertain population forecasts," Nature, Nature, vol. 412(6846), pages 490-491, August.
- Bloom, David E. & Glied, Sherry, 1992. "Projecting the number of new AIDS cases in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 339-365, November.
- Ronald Lee, 2000. "Long‐Term Population Projections and the US Social Security System," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(1), pages 137-143, March.
- Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2005. "Average remaining lifetimes can increase as human populations age," Nature, Nature, vol. 435(7043), pages 811-813, June.
- Smith, Stanley K., 1997. "Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 557-565, December.
- Ortega, Jose Antonio & Poncela, Pilar, 2005. "Joint forecasts of Southern European fertility rates with non-stationary dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 539-550.
- John McDonald, 1979. "A time series approach to forecasting Australian total live-births," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(4), pages 575-601, November.
- Nan Li & Ronald Lee, 2005. "Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(3), pages 575-594, August.
- Sam Gutterman & Irwin Vanderhoof, 1998. "Forecasting Changes in Mortality," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 135-138.
- S. Morgan, 1982. "Parity-specific fertility intentions and uncertainty: the United States, 1970 to 1976," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(3), pages 315-334, August.
- Alho, Juha M., 1990. "Stochastic methods in population forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 521-530, December.
- S. Morgan, 1981. "Intention and uncertainty at later stages of childbearing: the united states 1965 and 1970," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 18(3), pages 267-285, August.
- Joshua R. Goldstein & Guy Stecklov, 2002. "Long‐Range Population Projections Made Simple," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 121-141, March.
- Shripad Tuljapurkar & Nan Li & Carl Boe, 2000. "A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries," Nature, Nature, vol. 405(6788), pages 789-792, June.
- McNown, Robert & Rogers, Andrei, 1992. "Forecasting cause-specific mortality using time series methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 413-432, November.
- Stanley Smith & Terry Sincich, 1991. "An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Length of Forecast Horizon on Population Forecast Errors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 28(2), pages 261-274, May.
- Lawrence Carter, 2000. "Imparting structural instability to mortality forecasts: Testing for sensitive dependence on initial conditions with innovations," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 31-54.
- Renbao Chen & S. Morgan, 1991. "Recent Trends in the Timing of First Births in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 28(4), pages 513-533, November.
- Robert McNown & Andrei Rogers, 1989. "Forecasting Mortality: A Parameterized Time Series Approach," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(4), pages 645-660, November.
- Joel Cohen, 1986. "Population forecasts and confidence intervals for sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 23(1), pages 105-126, February.
- Jan Hoem & Dan Madien & Jørgen Nielsen & Else-Marie Ohlsen & Hans Hansen & Bo Rennermalm, 1981. "Experiments in modelling recent Danish fertility curves," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 18(2), pages 231-244, May.
- Harald Hannerz, 2001. "Manhood Trials and the Law of Mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 4(7), pages 185-202.
- Alho, Juha M., 1992. "The magnitude of error due to different vital processes in population forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 301-314, November.
- John Ermisch, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Birth Rate Dynamics in Britain," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 23(4), pages 563-576.
- Smith, Stanley K. & Sincich, Terry, 1992. "Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 495-508, November.
- Shripad Tuljapurkar & Carl Boe, "undated". "Mortality Change and Forecasting: How Much and How Little Do We Know?," Pension Research Council Working Papers 98-2, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Shahid Ullah, Md., 2007.
"Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4942-4956, June.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Md. Shahid Ullah, 2005. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Hervé Le Bras, 2005. "Mortality tempo versus removal of causes of mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(25), pages 615-640.
- Manton, Kenneth G. & Stallard, Eric & Singer, Burt, 1992. "Projecting the future size and health status of the US elderly population," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 433-458, November.
- Morgan, S. Philip & Chen, Renbao, 1992. "Predicting childlessness for recent cohorts of American women," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 477-493, November.
- Shripad Tuljapurkar & Carl Boe, 1998. "Mortality Change and Forecasting," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 13-47.
- Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 1997. "Doubling of world population unlikely," Nature, Nature, vol. 387(6635), pages 803-805, June.
- S. Olshansky & Bruce Carnes, 1997. "Ever since gompertz," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(1), pages 1-15, February.
- John Bongaarts & Rodolfo A. Bulatao, 1999. "Completing the Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(3), pages 515-529, September.
- Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(7), pages 145-190.
- Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
- Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham & Arve Hetland, 2002. "Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(15), pages 409-454.
- John Bongaarts & Griffith Feeney, 2002. "How Long Do We Live?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 13-29, March.
- Stephen Goss & Alice Wade & Felicitie Bell & Bernard Dussault, 1998. "Historical and Projected Mortality for Mexico, Canada, and the United States," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 108-126.
- James J. Heckman & James R. Walker, 1989. "Forecasting Aggregate Period Specific Birth Rates: The Time Series Properties of a Microdynamic Neoclassical Model of Fertility," NBER Working Papers 3133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham, 2000. "Predictive Intervals for Age-Specific Fertility," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 41-65, March.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008.
"Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
- Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth, 2006. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Tickle Leonie & Booth Heather, 2014. "The Longevity Prospects of Australian Seniors: An Evaluation of Forecast Method and Outcome," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 259-292, July.
- Ortega, Jose Antonio & Poncela, Pilar, 2005. "Joint forecasts of Southern European fertility rates with non-stationary dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 539-550.
- Pitacco, Ermanno, 2004. "Survival models in a dynamic context: a survey," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 279-298, October.
- Hatzopoulos, P. & Haberman, S., 2009. "A parameterized approach to modeling and forecasting mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 103-123, February.
- Njenga Carolyn N & Sherris Michael, 2011. "Longevity Risk and the Econometric Analysis of Mortality Trends and Volatility," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-54, July.
- Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2023. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1033-1049.
- Han Lin Shang & Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth, 2010. "A comparison of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham & Arve Hetland, 2002. "Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(15), pages 409-454.
- Shripad Tuljapurkar & Ryan Edwards, 2011.
"Variance in death and its implications for modeling and forecasting mortality,"
Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(21), pages 497-526.
- Shripad Tuljapurkar & Ryan D. Edwards, 2009. "Variance in Death and Its Implications for Modeling and Forecasting Mortality," NBER Working Papers 15288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Haberman, Steven & Renshaw, Arthur, 2011. "A comparative study of parametric mortality projection models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 35-55, January.
- Han Lin Shang & Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman, 2011. "Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(5), pages 173-214.
- Jorge Bravo, 2011. "Pricing Longevity Bonds Using Affine-Jump Diffusion Models," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2011_29, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
- Jorge Bravo & Carlos Pereira da Silva, 2012. "Prospective Lifetables: Life Insurance Pricing and Hedging in a Stochastic Mortality Environment," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2012_01, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
- Han Lin Shang, 2012. "Point and interval forecasts of age-specific life expectancies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(21), pages 593-644.
- Ahmadi, Seyed Saeed & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2014. "Coherent mortality forecasting with generalized linear models: A modified time-transformation approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 194-221.
- Rob Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2013.
"Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method With Functional Time Series Models,"
Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 261-283, February.
- Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2011. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting The Product-ratio Method with Functional Time Series Models," Working Papers 201116, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
- Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2011. "Coherent mortality forecasting: the product-ratio method with functional time series models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/11, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Niels Haldrup & Carsten P. T. Rosenskjold, 2019.
"A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality,"
Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, March.
- Niels Haldrup & Carsten P. T. Rosenskjold, 2018. "A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality," CREATES Research Papers 2018-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Jeff Tayman & Stanley Smith & Jeffrey Lin, 2007. "Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts: an exploratory analysis of time series models," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 26(3), pages 347-369, June.
- Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:22:y:2006:i:3:p:547-581. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.