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Long‐Term Population Projections and the US Social Security System

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  • Ronald Lee

Abstract

According to a report recently issued by the Technical Panel for the US Social Security Administration, the long‐term financial outlook for the system is worse than previously thought. The worsening projected by the panel in the long‐run funding imbalance of the Social Security System is mostly due to the recommendation by the panel to add an extra four years to the currently projected increase in life expectancy by 2075: from 81.8 years to 85.9 years. The panel recommended no change in the current intermediate projected long‐run TFR of 1.9 and net immigration of 900,000 persons per year. The recommendation to increase the projected gains in life expectancy was based on international trends as well as on historical trends in the United States and the absence of biological evidence ruling out such gains. Industrial countries have a history of under‐predicting the growth of their elderly population, and it is expected that large mortality adjustments may be needed in the projections for public pension programs also in industrial countries other than the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald Lee, 2000. "Long‐Term Population Projections and the US Social Security System," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(1), pages 137-143, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:26:y:2000:i:1:p:137-143
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2000.00137.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timothy Miller & Ronald Lee, 2000. "Immigration, Social Security, and Broader Fiscal Impacts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 350-354, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    2. Laura Stark & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2000. "The public perception and discussion of falling birth rates: the recent debate over low fertility in the popular press," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2000-009, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Pervi Sevak & Lucie Schmidt, 2008. "Immigrant-Native Fertility and Mortality Differentials in the United States," Working Papers wp181, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    4. Misbah Tanveer Choudhry & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2016. "Age dependency and labour productivity divergence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(50), pages 4823-4845, October.

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