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Estimating The Impact Of Immigrants On The Host Country Social Security System When Return Migration Is An Endogenous Choice

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  • Murat G. Kirdar

Abstract

This article estimates immigrants’ fiscal impact on the German pension insurance and unemployment insurance systems when return migration is an endogenous choice. For this purpose, it develops a dynamic stochastic model of joint return migration and saving decisions and estimates it using longitudinal data on immigrants from five countries. The results indicate that exogenous return migration—which has been the practice of the literature so far—underestimates the state coffers’ net gain substantially; e.g., the unemployment insurance system’s net gain from Turks arriving after age 30 falls by an amount that is roughly equal to their annual earnings at arrival.

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  • Murat G. Kirdar, 2012. "Estimating The Impact Of Immigrants On The Host Country Social Security System When Return Migration Is An Endogenous Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 453-486, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:53:y:2012:i:2:p:453-486
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2354.2012.00688.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bernt Bratsberg & Oddbjørn Raaum & Knut Røed, 2018. "Job Loss and Immigrant Labour Market Performance," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(337), pages 124-151, January.
    3. Aubry, Amandine & Burzyński, Michał & Docquier, Frédéric, 2016. "The welfare impact of global migration in OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-21.
    4. Busch, Christopher & Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander & Popova, Irina & Iftikhar, Zainab, 2020. "Should Germany have built a new wall? Macroeconomic lessons from the 2015-18 refugee wave," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 28-55.
    5. Faruk, Balli & Syed Abul, Basher & Rosmy, Jean Louis & Ahmed Saber, Mahmud, 2016. "On the global determinants of visiting home," MPRA Paper 72291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Fausto Galli & Giuseppe Russo, 2019. "Immigration restrictions and second-generation cultural assimilation: theory and quasi-experimental evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 23-51, January.
    7. Bijwaard, G.E., 2009. "Labour Market Status and Migration Dynamics," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-25, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    8. Murat Kırdar, 2013. "Source country characteristics and immigrants’ optimal migration duration decision," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Djajic, Slobodan & Kirdar, Murat G. & Vinogradova, Alexandra, 2016. "Source-country earnings and emigration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 46-67.
    10. Djajić, Slobodan, 2014. "Asylum seeking and irregular migration," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 83-95.
    11. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2016. "The Economics of Temporary Migrations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(1), pages 98-136, March.
    12. Slobodan Djajić, 2017. "Transit migration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 1017-1045, November.
    13. Jérôme Adda & Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, "undated". "The Dynamics of Return Migration, Human Capital Accumulation, and Wage Assimilation," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2111, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    14. Holzmann, Robert & Koettl, Johannes, 2011. "Portability of Pension, Health, and Other Social Benefits: Facts, Concepts, Issues," IZA Discussion Papers 5715, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Al Husein, N. & Wagner, N., 2020. "Determinants of intended return migration among refugees : A comparison of Syrian refugees in Germany and Turkey," ISS Working Papers - General Series 127798, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    16. Aracı, Doğu Tan & Demirci, Murat & Kirdar, Murat G., 2021. "Development Level of Hosting Areas and the Impact of Refugees on Natives' Labor Market Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 14267, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Akay, Alpaslan & Brausmann, Alexandra & Djajić, Slobodan & Kırdar, Murat G., 2021. "Purchasing-power-parity and the saving behavior of temporary migrants," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Robert Holzmann & Johannes Koettl, 2015. "Portability of Pension, Health, and Other Social Benefits: Facts, Concepts, and Issues," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 61(2), pages 377-415.
    19. Christian Dustmann & Giovanni Facchini & Cora Signorotto, 2015. "Population, Migration, Ageing and Health: A Survey," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1518, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy

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