IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp1012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Bellemare, Charles

    (Université Laval)

Abstract

This paper estimates a structural dynamic life-cycle model of outmigration where, in each period, immigrants choose whether to work in the host country, not to work but remain in the host country, or outmigrate. The model incorporates several features of existing life-cycle theories of outmigration but distinguishes itself by introducing uncertainty in about future earnings and preferences which allows immigrants to revise their duration decisions throughout their migration experience. We overcome the problem of not directly observing outmigration movements by using panel attrition as a proxy variable and use a simple method to correct for the fact that part of the attrition is not a consequence of outmigration. Estimates are used to predict changes in life-cycle patterns of outmigration behavior. Estimation results indicate that outmigration does not depend exclusively on earnings differentials. Estimated assimilation rates are found to be robust to selection effects. Immigrants are found to be forward looking decision makers, and simulations show that predicted migration durations are very sensitive to changes in their economic environment and differ considerably from those of a myopic model.

Suggested Citation

  • Bellemare, Charles, 2004. "A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 1012, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp1012.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2000. "Immigration Policy in Integrated National Economies," IZA Discussion Papers 170, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Bellemare, Charles, 2004. "Identification and Estimation of Economic Models of Outmigration Using Panel Attrition," IZA Discussion Papers 1065, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Borjas, George J. & Freeman, Richard B. (ed.), 1992. "Immigration and the Work Force," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226066332, March.
    4. Thierry Magnac & David Thesmar, 2002. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 801-816, March.
    5. Per-Anders Edin & Robert J. LaLonde & Olof Aslund, 2000. "Emigration of Immigrants and Measures of Immigrant Assimilation: Evidence from Sweden," Working Papers 0020, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
    6. Klaus F. Zimmermann, 1995. "Tackling the European Migration Problems," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 45-62, Spring.
    7. Sarit Cohen-Goldner & Zvi Eckstein, 2008. "Labor Mobility Of Immigrants: Training, Experience, Language, And Opportunities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 837-872, August.
    8. Charles Bellemare, 2004. "Identification and Estimation of the Economic Performance of Outmigrants using Panel Attrition," Cahiers de recherche 0429, CIRPEE.
    9. Thomas K. Bauer & Astrid Kunze, 2004. "The demand for high-skilled workers and immigration policy," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 47(1), pages 77-88.
    10. repec:pri:rpdevs:lubotsky_chutes_or_ladders is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Darren Lubotsky, 2007. "Chutes or Ladders? A Longitudinal Analysis of Immigrant Earnings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(5), pages 820-867, October.
    12. Dustmann, Christian, 1994. "Return Intentions of Migrants: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Carrington, William J & Detragiache, Enrica & Vishwanath, Tara, 1996. "Migration with Endogenous Moving Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 909-930, September.
    14. Stark, Oded, 2013. "On the Economics of Others," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 709-715.
    15. Richard Bellman, 1957. "On a Dynamic Programming Approach to the Caterer Problem--I," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 270-278, April.
    16. Hausman, J. A. & Abrevaya, Jason & Scott-Morton, F. M., 1998. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 239-269, September.
    17. Robert J. LaLonde & Robert H. Topel, 1992. "The Assimilation of Immigrants in the U. S. Labor Market," NBER Chapters, in: Immigration and the Work Force: Economic Consequences for the United States and Source Areas, pages 67-92, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Christian Dustmann & Arthur van Soest, 2001. "Language Fluency And Earnings: Estimation With Misclassified Language Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 663-674, November.
    19. Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Johannes Velling, 1997. "Employment Effects Of Immigration To Germany: An Analysis Based On Local Labor Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 594-604, November.
    20. Wei-Yin Hu, 2000. "Immigrant Earnings Assimilation: Estimates from Longitudinal Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 368-372, May.
    21. Guillermina Jasso & Mark Rosensweig & James P. Smith, 2003. "The Earnings of US immigrants," Labor and Demography 0312007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Dustmann, Christian, 2000. "Temporary Migration and Economic Assimilation," IZA Discussion Papers 186, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    23. Darren Lubotsky, 2000. "Chutes or Ladders? A Longitudinal Analysis of Immigrant Earnings," Working Papers 824, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    24. Markus Pannenberg, 1997. "Documentation of Sample Sizes and Panel Attrition in the German Socio Economic Panel (GSOEP) (1984 until 1996)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 150, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    25. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1995. "Unemployment Benefits and Labor Market Transitions: A Multinomial Logit Model with Errors in Classification," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(2), pages 207-216, May.
    26. George J. Borjas & Richard B. Freeman, 1992. "Immigration and the Work Force: Economic Consequences for the United States and Source Areas," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number borj92-1, March.
    27. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    28. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2002. "The optimal migration duration and activity choice after re-migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-372, April.
    29. William A. V. Clark & Anita I. Drever, 2001. "Do Immigrants Improve Their Housing Quality When They Move?: Evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(1), pages 87-94.
    30. Dubin, Jeffrey A & McFadden, Daniel L, 1984. "An Econometric Analysis of Residential Electric Appliance Holdings and Consumption," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 345-362, March.
    31. Jasso, Guillermina & Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1990. "Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 298-304, March.
    32. Bound, John & Brown, Charles & Mathiowetz, Nancy, 2001. "Measurement error in survey data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 59, pages 3705-3843, Elsevier.
    33. T. Paul Schultz, 1998. "Immigrant quality and assimilation: A review of the US literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(2), pages 239-252.
    34. repec:pri:rpdevs:lubotsky_chutes_or_ladders.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Pessino, Carola, 1991. "Sequential migration theory and evidence from Peru," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 55-87, July.
    36. Lewbel, Arthur, 2000. "Identification Of The Binary Choice Model With Misclassification," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 603-609, August.
    37. Djajic, Slobodan & Milbourne, Ross, 1988. "A general equilibrium model of guest-worker migration : The source-country perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 335-351, November.
    38. Christian Dustmann, 1996. "An Economic Analysis of Return Migration," Discussion Papers 96-02 ISSN 1350-6722, University College London, Department of Economics.
    39. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 1996. "Female Labour Supply and Marital Status Decisions: A Life-Cycle Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(2), pages 199-235.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christian Dustmann, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants Earnings Profiles," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1402, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    2. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2016. "The Economics of Temporary Migrations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(1), pages 98-136, March.
    3. Alpaslan Akay & Olivier Bargain & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2017. "Home Sweet Home?: Macroeconomic Conditions in Home Countries and the Well-Being of Migrants," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 52(2), pages 351-373.
    4. Karima Kourtit & Peter Nijkamp & Masood Gheasi, 2018. "Fortunado’s, Desperado’s and Clandestino’s in Diaspora Labour Markets: The Circular ‘Homo Mobilis’," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Roger R. Stough & Karima Kourtit & Peter Nijkamp & Uwe Blien (ed.), Modelling Aging and Migration Effects on Spatial Labor Markets, chapter 0, pages 31-50, Springer.
    5. Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2021. "Borrowing Constraints and the Dynamics of Return and Repeat Migrations," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2129, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    6. Ciro Avitabile & Irma Clots-Figueras & Paolo Masella, 2013. "The Effect of Birthright Citizenship on Parental Integration Outcomes," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 777-810.
    7. Tommaso Frattini, 2017. "Integration of immigrants in host countries - what we know and what works," Development Working Papers 427, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    8. Kuhlenkasper, Torben & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2017. "Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 610-621.
    9. Rémi Bazillier & Francesco Magris & Daniel Mirza, 2017. "Out-migration and economic cycles," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 39-69, February.
    10. Jain, Apoorva & Peter, Klara Sabirianova, 2017. "Limits to Wage Growth: Understanding the Wage Divergence between Immigrants and Natives," IZA Discussion Papers 10891, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Merton, Robert C, 1978. "On the Cost of Deposit Insurance When There Are Surveillance Costs," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 439-452, July.
    12. Martin Kahanec & Michael Shields, 2013. "The working hours of immigrants in Germany: temporary versus permanent," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Jain, Apoorva & Peter, Klara Sabirianova, 2017. "A Joint Hazard-Longitudinal Model of the Timing of Migration, Immigrant Quality, and Labor Market Assimilation," IZA Discussion Papers 10887, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Mrittika Shamsuddin & Marina-Selini Katsaiti, 2020. "Migration and Happiness: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 21(8), pages 2931-2955, December.
    15. Zakharenko, Roman, 2008. "Return Migration: an Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 13755, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2009.
    16. Elena Samarsky, 2020. "Who is Thinking of Leaving Germany? The Role of Postmaterialism, Risk Attitudes, and Life-Satisfaction on Emigration Intentions of German Nationals," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1066, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    17. repec:leo:wpaper:2314 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Rosa Weber, 2015. "Does intermarriage change migrants’ preferences for the home country?," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    19. Majlinda Joxhe, 2012. "Selection in Return Migration: the Role of the Ethnic Networks," ERSA conference papers ersa12p463, European Regional Science Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bellemare, C., 2004. "A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany," Other publications TiSEM b1d1686c-ab07-4e19-905a-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Charles Bellemare, 2004. "Identification and Estimation of the Economic Performance of Outmigrants using Panel Attrition," Cahiers de recherche 0429, CIRPEE.
    3. Bellemare, C., 2004. "Identification and Estimation of Economic Models of Outmigration using Panel Attrition," Discussion Paper 2004-28, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Dustmann, Christian & Glitz, Albrecht, 2011. "Migration and Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 327-439, Elsevier.
    5. Longva, Pal, 2001. "Out-migration of immigrants : implications for assimilation analysis," Memorandum 04/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    6. Rosa Weber, 2015. "Does intermarriage change migrants’ preferences for the home country?," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2016. "The Economics of Temporary Migrations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(1), pages 98-136, March.
    8. George J. Borjas, 2021. "The Slowdown in the Economic Assimilation of Immigrants: Aging and Cohort Effects Revisited Again," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 3, pages 31-65, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Darren Lubotsky, 2011. "The Effect of Changes in the U.S. Wage Structure on Recent Immigrants' Earnings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 59-71, February.
    10. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr, 2011. "Economic Impacts of Immigration: A Survey," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-32, Spring.
    11. Merja Kauhanen & Mari Kangasniemi, 2012. "Who leaves and who stays? Outmigration of Estonian immigrants from Finland and its impact on economic assimilation of Estonian immigrants in Finland," Working Papers 282, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    12. Alcobendas, Miguel Angel & Rodríguez-Planas, Núria, 2009. "Immigrants' Assimilation Process in a Segmented Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 4394, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Lena Nekby, 2006. "The emigration of immigrants, return vs onward migration: evidence from Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 197-226, June.
    14. Darren Lubotsky, 2001. "The Effect of Changes in the U.S. Wage Structure on Recent Immigrants' Earnings," Working Papers 837, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    15. Stephen J. Trejo, 2003. "Intergenerational Progress of Mexican-Origin Workers in the U.S. Labor Market," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(3).
    16. Izquierdo, Mario & Lacuesta, Aitor & Vegas, Raquel, 2009. "Assimilation of immigrants in Spain: A longitudinal analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 669-678, December.
    17. Guillermina Jasso & Mark Rosensweig & James P. Smith, 2003. "The Earnings of US immigrants," Labor and Demography 0312007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Christian Dustmann, 2002. "Arbeitsmarktverhalten, Integration und Rückkehr von Einwanderern," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(2), pages 272-285.
    19. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M, 2001. "First- and Second-Generation Migrants in Germany - What Do We Know and What Do People Think," CEPR Discussion Papers 2803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Bellemare, C., 2004. "Identification and Estimation of Economic Models of Outmigration using Panel Attrition," Other publications TiSEM 60237d53-7648-4b7f-93c3-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural dynamic programming models; outmigration;

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.