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A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany

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  • Bellemare, C.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper estimates a structural dynamic life-cycle model of outmigration where, in each period, immigrants choose whether to work in the host country, not to work but remain in the host country, or outmigrate.The model incorporates several features of existing life-cycle theories of outmigration but distinguishes itself by introducing uncertainty in about future earnings and preferences which allows immigrants to revise their duration decisions throughout their migration experience.Because immigrants simultaneously face a migration and a work decision in each period, the economic assimilation rates commonly used to assess the performance of immigrants in the host economy are endogenously determined and estimated, a feature previously ignored in the literature.We overcome the problem of not directly observing outmigration movements by using panel attrition as a proxy variable and use a simple method to correct for the fact that part of the attrition is not a consequence of outmigration.Estimates are used to predict changes in life-cycle patterns of outmigration behavior.Estimation results indicate that outmigration does not depend exclusively on earnings differentials.Estimated assimilation rates are found to be robust to selection effects.Immigrants are found to be forward looking decision makers, and simulations show that predicted migration durations are very sensitive to changes in their economic environment and differ considerably from those of a myopic model.

Suggested Citation

  • Bellemare, C., 2004. "A Life-Cycle Model of Outmigration and Economic Assimilation of Immigrants in Germany," Discussion Paper 2004-29, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:b1d1686c-ab07-4e19-905a-d2e8d9585879
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Dustmann, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants Earnings Profiles," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1402, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
    2. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2016. "The Economics of Temporary Migrations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 98-136.
    3. repec:uwp:jhriss:v:52:y:2017:i:2:p:351-373 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ciro Avitabile & Irma Clots-Figueras & Paolo Masella, 2013. "The Effect of Birthright Citizenship on Parental Integration Outcomes," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 777-810.
    5. Alpaslan Akay & Olivier Bargain & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2017. "Home Sweet Home?: Macroeconomic Conditions in Home Countries and the Well-Being of Migrants," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, pages 351-373.
    6. Tommaso Frattini, 2017. "Integration of immigrants in host countries - what we know and what works," Development Working Papers 427, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 10 Apr 2017.
    7. Kuhlenkasper, Torben & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2012. "Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany," HWWI Research Papers 128, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    8. Rémi Bazillier & Francesco Magris & Daniel Mirza, 2017. "Out-migration and economic cycles," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), pages 39-69.
    9. Jain, Apoorva & Peter, Klara Sabirianova, 2017. "Limits to Wage Growth: Understanding the Wage Divergence between Immigrants and Natives," IZA Discussion Papers 10891, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    10. Martin Kahanec & Michael Shields, 2013. "The working hours of immigrants in Germany: temporary versus permanent," IZA Journal of Migration, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Torben Kuhlenkasper & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2012. "Who Leaves and When?: Selective Outmigration of Immigrants from Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 490, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    12. Zakharenko, Roman, 2008. "Return Migration: an Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 13755, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2009.
    13. repec:leo:wpaper:2314 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Majlinda Joxhe, 2012. "Selection in Return Migration: the Role of the Ethnic Networks," ERSA conference papers ersa12p463, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration; dynamic programming; immigration; emigration; life cycles; Germany;

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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