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Who Leaves and When?: Selective Outmigration of Immigrants from Germany

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  • Torben Kuhlenkasper
  • Max Friedrich Steinhardt

Abstract

The paper provides new evidence on the outmigration of foreign-born immigrants. We make use of data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and employ penalised spline smoothing in the context of a Poisson-type Generalised Additive Mixed Model (GAMM), which enables us to incorporate bivariate interaction effects. A unique feature is the use of data from dropout studies to identify outmigration. For Turkish immigrants, outmigration is characterized by positive skill selection intensifying the initial negative selection process. For Non-Turkish immigrants we instead find a u-shaped pattern between human capital and outmigration. Finally, we discover substantial variation in emigration behaviour during the life-cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Torben Kuhlenkasper & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2012. "Who Leaves and When?: Selective Outmigration of Immigrants from Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 490, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp490
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    Cited by:

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    2. Amelie F. Constant, 2019. "Return, Circular, and Onward Migration Decisions in a Knowledge Society," CESifo Working Paper Series 7913, CESifo.
    3. Akay, Alpaslan & Brausmann, Alexandra & Djajic, Slobodan & Kirdar, Murat Güray, 2018. "Purchasing-Power-Parity and the Saving Behavior of Temporary Migrants," IZA Discussion Papers 11679, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Amelie F. Constant, 2020. "Time-Space Dynamics of Return and Circular Migration: Theories and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 8053, CESifo.
    5. Dean Fantazzini & Julia Pushchelenko & Alexey Mironenkov & Alexey Kurbatskii, 2021. "Forecasting Internal Migration in Russia Using Google Trends: Evidence from Moscow and Saint Petersburg," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-30, October.
    6. Hirsch, Boris & Jahn, Elke J. & Toomet, Ott & Hochfellner, Daniela, 2013. "Does Better Pre-Migration Performance Accelerate Immigrants' Wage Assimilation?," IZA Discussion Papers 7240, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Hirsch, Boris & Jahn, Elke J. & Toomet, Ott & Hochfellner, Daniela, 2014. "Do better pre-migration skills accelerate immigrants' wage assimilation?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 212-222.
    8. Bräuninger, Michael, 2014. "Tax sovereignty and feasibility of international regulations for tobacco tax policies," HWWI Research Papers 152, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    9. Hohenleitner, Ingrid & Hillmann, Katja, 2012. "Impact of Benefit Sanctions on Unemployment Outflow - Evidence from German Survey Data," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 66055, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Paul Berbée & Jan Stuhler, 2023. "The Integration of Migrants in the German Labor Market: Evidence over 50 Years," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2315, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    11. Juan Galeano & Aurélie Pont & Philippe Wanner, 2022. "A Longitudinal Analysis of Naturalization and International Migration in Switzerland, 2011–2017," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 889-910, June.
    12. Steinhardt, Max F., 2018. "The Impact of Xenophobic Violence on the Integration of Immigrants," IZA Discussion Papers 11781, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Diehl, Claudia & Liebau, Elisabeth, 2015. "Turning back to Turkey - or Turning the Back on Germany? Remigration Intentions and Behavior of Turkish Immigrants in Germany between 1984 and 2011," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 22-41.
    14. Akay, Alpaslan & Brausmann, Alexandra & Djajić, Slobodan & Kırdar, Murat G., 2021. "Purchasing-power-parity and the saving behavior of temporary migrants," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    15. Elena Samarsky, 2020. "Who is Thinking of Leaving Germany? The Role of Postmaterialism, Risk Attitudes, and Life-Satisfaction on Emigration Intentions of German Nationals," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1066, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    16. Eric Schuss, 2020. "Substantial Labor Market Effects of the Residency Status," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 993-1026, December.
    17. Claudia Diehl & Elisabeth Liebau, 2014. "Turning Back to Turkey - or Turning the Back to Germany?: Remigration Intentions and Behavior of Turkish Immigrants in Germany between 1984 and 2011," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 637, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    18. Rosa Weber, 2015. "Does intermarriage change migrants’ preferences for the home country?," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, December.
    19. Vöpel, Henning, 2013. "A Zidane clustering theorem: Why top players tend to play in one team and how the competitive balance can be restored," HWWI Research Papers 141, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    20. Giulia Bettin & Eralba Cela & Tineke Fokkema, 2018. "Return intentions over the life course: Evidence on the effects of life events from a longitudinal sample of first- and second-generation Turkish migrants in Germany," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(38), pages 1009-1038.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emigration; self-selection; German Socio-Economic Panel; generalised additive mixed models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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