Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: Facts and theory
East-West migration in Germany peaked at the beginning of the 90s although the average wage gap between Eastern and Western Germany continues to average about 25%. We analyze the propensity to migrate using microdata from the German Socioeconomic Panel. Fitting a parametric Generalized Linear Model (GLM) yields nonlinear residual behavior. This finding is not compatible with classical Marshallian theory of migration and motivates the semiparametric analysis. We estimate a Generalized Partial Linear Model (GPLM) where some components of the index of explanatory variables enter nonparametrically. We find the estimate of the nonparametric inuence in concordance with a number of alternative migration theories, including the recently proposed option-value-of-waiting theory.
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- M. C. Burda, 1995.
"Migration and the Option Value of Waiting,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1995,58, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Wolfgang HÄRDLE & Enno MAMMEN & Maike MÜLLER, 1996.
"Testing Parametric versus Semiparametric Modelling in Generalized Linear Models,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1996,28, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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CEPR Discussion Papers
764, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Burda, Michael C., 1993. "The determinants of East-West German migration: Some first results," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 452-461, April.
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