Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: Facts and theory
East-West migration in Germany peaked at the beginning of the 90s although the average wage gap between Eastern and Western Germany continues to average about 25%. We analyze the propensity to migrate using microdata from the German Socioeconomic Panel. Fitting a parametric Generalized Linear Model (GLM) yields nonlinear residual behavior. This finding is not compatible with classical Marshallian theory of migration and motivates the semiparametric analysis. We estimate a Generalized Partial Linear Model (GPLM) where some components of the index of explanatory variables enter nonparametrically. We find the estimate of the nonparametric inuence in concordance with a number of alternative migration theories, including the recently proposed option-value-of-waiting theory.
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- Burda,M.C., 1995.
"Migration and the Option Value of Waiting,"
597, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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"The determinants of East-West German migration: Some first results,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 452-461, April.
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SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1996,28, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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