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Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: facts and theory

  • Michael C. Burda

    (Institut für Wirtschaftstheorie II, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany)

  • Wolfgang Härdle

    (Institut für Statistik und Ökonometrie, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany)

  • Marlene Müller

    (Institut für Statistik und Ökonometrie, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany)

  • Axel Werwatz

    (Institut für Statistik und Ökonometrie, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany)

East-West migration in Germany peaked at the beginning of the 1990s although the average wage gap between Eastern and Western Germany continues to average about 25%. We analyse the propensity to migrate using microdata from the German Socioeconomic Panel. Fitting a parametric Generalized Linear Model (GLM) yields non-linear residual behavior. This finding is not compatible with classical Marshallian theory of migration and motivates the semiparametric analysis. We estimate a Generalized Partial Linear Model (GPLM) where some components of the index of explanatory variables enter non-parametrically. We find the estimate of the non-parametric influence in concordance with a number of alternative migration theories, including the recently proposed option-value-of-waiting theory. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 13 (1998)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 525-541

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:13:y:1998:i:5:p:525-541
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  1. Burda, Michael C, 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Burda, Michael C, 1993. "The Determinants of East-West German Migration: Some First Results," CEPR Discussion Papers 764, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1994. "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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