Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: facts and theory
East-West migration in Germany peaked at the beginning of the 1990s although the average wage gap between Eastern and Western Germany continues to average about 25%. We analyse the propensity to migrate using microdata from the German Socioeconomic Panel. Fitting a parametric Generalized Linear Model (GLM) yields non-linear residual behavior. This finding is not compatible with classical Marshallian theory of migration and motivates the semiparametric analysis. We estimate a Generalized Partial Linear Model (GPLM) where some components of the index of explanatory variables enter non-parametrically. We find the estimate of the non-parametric influence in concordance with a number of alternative migration theories, including the recently proposed option-value-of-waiting theory. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 13 (1998)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Burda, Michael C, 1993.
"The Determinants of East-West German Migration: Some First Results,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
764, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Burda, Michael C., 1993. "The determinants of East-West German migration: Some first results," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 452-461, April.
- Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1994. "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- M. C. Burda, 1995.
"Migration and the Option Value of Waiting,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1995,58, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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