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Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: facts and theory

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  • Michael C. Burda

    (Institut für Wirtschaftstheorie II, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany)

  • Wolfgang Härdle

    (Institut für Statistik und Ökonometrie, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany)

  • Marlene Müller

    (Institut für Statistik und Ökonometrie, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany)

  • Axel Werwatz

    (Institut für Statistik und Ökonometrie, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany)

Abstract

East-West migration in Germany peaked at the beginning of the 1990s although the average wage gap between Eastern and Western Germany continues to average about 25%. We analyse the propensity to migrate using microdata from the German Socioeconomic Panel. Fitting a parametric Generalized Linear Model (GLM) yields non-linear residual behavior. This finding is not compatible with classical Marshallian theory of migration and motivates the semiparametric analysis. We estimate a Generalized Partial Linear Model (GPLM) where some components of the index of explanatory variables enter non-parametrically. We find the estimate of the non-parametric influence in concordance with a number of alternative migration theories, including the recently proposed option-value-of-waiting theory. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael C. Burda & Wolfgang Härdle & Marlene Müller & Axel Werwatz, 1998. "Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: facts and theory," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 525-541.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:13:y:1998:i:5:p:525-541
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Burda, Michael C, 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Felix Büchel ; Johannes Schwarze, 1994. "Die Migration von Ost- nach Westdeutschland: Absichtserklärung und Realisierung," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 87, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1994. "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Burda, Michael C., 1993. "The determinants of East-West German migration: Some first results," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 452-461, April.
    5. Härdle, W.K. & Mammen, E. & Müller, M.D., 1996. "Testing Parametric versus Semiparametric Modelling in Generalized Linear Models," Other publications TiSEM 3b9b6d39-869e-4ecd-9982-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Oded Stark, 1991. "The Migration of Labor," Blackwell Books, Wiley Blackwell, number 1557860300, June.
    7. Härdle, W.K. & Mammen, E. & Müller, M.D., 1996. "Testing Parametric versus Semiparametric Modelling in Generalized Linear Models," Discussion Paper 1996-42, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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