Testing the Validity of the Neoclassical Migration Model: Overall and Age-Group Specific Estimation Results for German Spatial Planning Regions
This paper assess the empirical validity of the neoclassical migration model to predict German internal migration flows driven by regional labour market disparities. We estimate static and dynamic migration functions for 97 Spatial Planning Regions between 1996--2006 using key labour market signals including income and unemployment differences among a broader set of explanatory variables. Beside an aggregate specification we also estimate the model for age-group related subsamples. Our results give empirical support for the main transmission channels identified by the neoclassical framework: That is, regional differences in the real income show the expected effect on the net inmigration rate, while the link between regional unemployment rate differentials and net inmigration is negative. The results remains stable if further variables are added to the model. Net in-commuting shows a negative correlation with in-migration underlying the substitutive nature of the two variables. Moreover an increasing level of international competitiveness attracts further in-migration flows. We also find heterogeneity for different types of settlement structure and the East-West macro regions by including federal state level fixed effects or an East German dummy. The results broadly hold for age-group specific estimates. Here, the impact of labour market signals is tested to be of greatest magnitude for workforce relevant age-groups and especially young cohorts from 18 to 25 and 25 to 30 years. This latter result underlines the prominent role played by labour market conditions in determining internal migration rates of the working population in Germany.
|Date of creation:||02 Jun 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Burda, Michael C., 1993.
"The determinants of East-West German migration: Some first results,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 452-461, April.
- Burda, Michael C, 1993. "The Determinants of East-West German Migration: Some First Results," CEPR Discussion Papers 764, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Burda, Michael C. & Härdle, Wolfgang & Müller, Marlene & Werwatz, Axel, 1997.
"Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: Facts and theory,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1998,3, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Michael C. Burda & Wolfgang Härdle & Marlene Müller & Axel Werwatz, 1998. "Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: facts and theory," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 525-541.
- Michael C. Burda & Jennifer Hunt, 2001. "From Reunification to Economic Integration: Productivity and the Labor Market in Eastern Germany," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 1-92.
- Ashok Parikh & Michiel Van Leuvensteijn, 2003. "Interregional labour mobility, inequality and wage convergence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 931-941.
- Vasilis Sarafidis & Donald Robertson, 2009. "On the impact of error cross-sectional dependence in short dynamic panel estimation," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 62-81, 03.
- Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998.
"Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
- R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Björn Alecke & Timo Mitze & Gerhard Untiedt, 2010.
"Internal migration, regional labour market dynamics and implications for German East-West disparities: results from a Panel VAR,"
Review of Regional Research,
Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 159-189, September.
- Björn Alecke & Timo Mitze & Gerhard Untiedt, 2009. "Internal Migration, Regional Labour Market Dynamics and Implications for German East-West Disparities – Results from a Panel VAR," Ruhr Economic Papers 0096, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
- S. de Silva & K. Hadri & A. R. Tremayne, 2009. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of cross-sectional dependence: finite sample performance and an application," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(2), pages 340-366, 07.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004.
"Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1331, CESifo Group Munich.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
- David Roodman, 2006.
"How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to "Difference" and "System" GMM in Stata,"
103, Center for Global Development.
- David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
- Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-48, March.
- Maza, Adolfo & Villaverde, Jose, 2004. "Interregional Migration in Spain: A Semiparametric Analysis," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 34(2), pages 156-71.
- Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1994. "Public-Sector Capital and the Productivity Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 12-21, February.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007.
"A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
- Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Martin S. Eichenbaum & Lars Peter Hansen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986.
"A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption andLeisure Choice Under Uncertainty,"
NBER Working Papers
1981, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eichenbaum, Martin S & Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1988. "A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption and Leisure Choice under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 51-78, February.
- Jörg Decressin, 1994. "Internal migration in West Germany and implications for East-West salary convergence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 231-257, June.
- Hunt, Jennifer, 2000.
"Why Do People Still Live in East Germany?,"
IZA Discussion Papers
123, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Jennifer Hunt, 2000. "Why Do People Still Live in East Germany?," NBER Working Papers 7564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jennifer Hunt, 2000. "Why Do People Still Live in East Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 201, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Hunt, Jennifer, 2000. "Why Do People Still Live In East Germany?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2431, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Subrata Ghatak & Alan Mulhern & John Watson, 2008. "Inter-Regional Migration in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 209-222, 02.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2007. "Phillips Curve or wage curve? : evidence from West Germany: 1980-2004," IAB Discussion Paper 200714, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
- Georges Bresson & Badi H. Baltagi & Alain Pirotte, 2007.
"Panel unit root tests and spatial dependence,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 339-360.
- Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & Alain Pirotte, 2006. "Panel Unit Root Tests and Spatial Dependence," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 88, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- Baltagi B-H & Bresson G. & Pirotte A., 2005. "Panel Unit Root Tests and Spatial Dependence," Working Papers ERMES 0503, ERMES, University Paris 2.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995.
"Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Helmut Rainer & Thomas Siedler, 2008.
"Social Networks in Determining Migration and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the German Reunification,"
CRIEFF Discussion Papers
0811, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm.
- Rainer, Helmut & Siedler, Thomas, 2008. "Social networks in determining migration and labour market outcomes: evidence from the German reunification," ISER Working Paper Series 2008-36, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bond, Stephen Roy & Hoeffler, Anke & Temple, Jonathan, 2001.
"GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3048, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stefano Fachin, 2007.
"Long-run trends in internal migrations in italy: a study in panel cointegration with dependent units,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 401-428.
- Stefano Fachin, 2005. "Long-Run Trends in Internal Migrations in Italy: a Study in Panel Cointegration with Dependent Units," Econometrics 0507002, EconWPA.
- Etzo, Ivan, 2007. "Determinants of interregional migration in Italy:A panel data analysis," MPRA Paper 5307, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sarafidis, Vasilis & Yamagata, Takashi & Robertson, Donald, 2009. "A test of cross section dependence for a linear dynamic panel model with regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 149-161, February.
- Puhani, Patrick A., 1999. "Labour Mobility - An Adjustment Mechanism in Euroland?," IZA Discussion Papers 34, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Ulrike Groemping, . "Relative Importance for Linear Regression in R: The Package relaimpo," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(i01).
- Arellano, M., 1989.
"A Note On The Anderson-Hsiao Estimator For Panel Data,"
Economics Series Working Papers
9975, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Arellano, Manuel, 1989. "A note on the Anderson-Hsiao estimator for panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 337-341, December.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995.
"Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
- M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Ahn, Seung C. & Schmidt, Peter, 1995. "Efficient estimation of models for dynamic panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 5-27, July.
- Everaert, Gerdie & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2007. "Bootstrap-based bias correction for dynamic panels," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1160-1184, April.
- Jackman, Richard & Savouri, Savvas, 1992. "Regional Migration in Britain: An Analysis of Gross Flows Using NHS Central Register Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(415), pages 1433-50, November.
- Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988.
"Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data,"
Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to demonstrate IV estimation of VAR in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTZ00185, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Napolitano, Oreste & Bonasia, Mariangela, 2010. "Determinants of different internal migration trends: the Italian experience," MPRA Paper 21734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Pissarides, Christopher A & McMaster, Ian, 1990. "Regional Migration, Wages and Unemployment: Empirical Evidence and Implications for Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 812-31, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23616. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.