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Testing the Neoclassical Migration Model: Overall and Age-Group Specific Results for German Regions

  • Timo Mitze

    ()

  • Janina Reinkowski

This paper tests the empirical validity of the neoclassical migration model in predicting German internal migration flows. We estimate static and dynamic migration functions for 97 Spatial Planning Regions between 1996 and 2006 using key labor market signals including income and unemployment differences among a broader set of explanatory variables. Besides an aggregate specification we also estimate the model for agegroup related subsamples. Our results give empirical support for the main transmission channels identified by the neoclassical framework – both at the aggregate level as well as for age-group specific estimates. Thereby, the impact of labor market signals is tested to be of greatest magnitude for workforce relevant age-groups and especially young cohorts between 18 to 25 and 25 to 30 years. This latter result underlines the prominent role played by labor market conditions in determining internal migration rates of the working population in Germany.

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Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0226.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0226
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  1. Carlo Devillanova & Walter García-Fontes, 2004. "Migration across Spanish provinces: evidence from the social security records (1978-1992)," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(3), pages 461-487, September.
  2. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
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  4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
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  7. repec:zbw:rwirep:0096 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Jackman, Richard & Savouri, Savvas, 1992. "Regional Migration in Britain: An Analysis of Gross Flows Using NHS Central Register Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(415), pages 1433-50, November.
  9. Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-48, March.
  10. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
  11. S. de Silva & K. Hadri & A. R. Tremayne, 2009. "Panel unit root tests in the presence of cross-sectional dependence: finite sample performance and an application," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(2), pages 340-366, 07.
  12. Dreger, Christian & Erber, Georg & Glocker, Daniela, 2009. "Regional Measures of Human Capital in the European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 3919, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Stefano Fachin, 2005. "Long-Run Trends in Internal Migrations in Italy: a Study in Panel Cointegration with Dependent Units," Econometrics 0507002, EconWPA.
  14. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
  15. Pissarides, Christopher A & McMaster, Ian, 1990. "Regional Migration, Wages and Unemployment: Empirical Evidence and Implications for Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 812-31, October.
  16. Alecke, Björn & Mitze, Timo & Untiedt, Gerhard, 2009. "Internal Migration, Regional Labour Market Dynamics and Implications for German East-West Disparities – Results from a Panel VAR," Ruhr Economic Papers 96, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  17. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Lars Peter Hansen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1988. "A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption and Leisure Choice Under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 51-78.
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