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Internal migration, regional labour market dynamics and implications for German East-West disparities: results from a Panel VAR

  • Björn Alecke

    ()

  • Timo Mitze

    ()

  • Gerhard Untiedt

    ()

Die Arbeit untersucht die kausale Beziehung zwischen regionalen Arbeitsmarktvariablen und internen Migrationsstömen für deutsche Bundesländer zwischen 1991–2006. Die Autoren verwenden ein VAR Modell mit Paneldaten zur Identifikation der Feedback Effekte zwischen den Variablen und zur Analyse der dynamischen Eigenschaften des Systems mit Hilfe von Impuls-Antwort Funktionen. Darüber hinaus wird das Modell verwendet, um die Entwicklung der spezifischen Ost-West Wanderungen nach der Wiedervereinigung zu analysien und das ostdeutsche ‚empirische Puzzle‘ zu beleuchten, welches eine Situation beschreibt, bei der Migrationsbewegungen nur unverhältnismäßig auf Arbeitsmarktungleichgewichte reagieren. In der Tat gibt die Analyse Hinweise für ein derartiges Puzzle in den 1990er Jahren, was insbesondere auf hohe West-Ost Einkommenstransfers, eine schnelle exogen getriebene Lohnanpassung an das West-Niveau sowie die Möglichkeit des Pendels zwischen den Makroregionen zurückzuführen ist. Allerdings dreht sich dieses Verhältnis in nachfolgenden Perioden: Entlang der zweiten Auswanderungswelle von Ost nach West um das Jahr 2001 sind die Netto-Ausströme aus Ostdeutschland viel höher als es die regionale Arbeitsmarktsituation erwarten lassen würde. Da diese zweite Abwanderungswelle mit dem graduellen Ausklingen der West-Ost Transferzahlungen und einer deutlich getrübten Erwartungshaltung hinsichtlich der Geschwindigkeit der Ost-West Einkommenskonvergenz einhergeht, wird für diese Periode der Abbau einer ‚zurückgestauten‘ Abwanderungswelle sichtbar. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2010

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Article provided by Springer & Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR) in its journal Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft.

Volume (Year): 30 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Pages: 159-189

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jahrfr:v:30:y:2010:i:2:p:159-189
DOI: 10.1007/s10037-010-0045-3
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