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Internal migration, regional labour market dynamics and implications for German East-West disparities: results from a Panel VAR

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  • Björn Alecke

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  • Timo Mitze

    ()

  • Gerhard Untiedt

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Abstract

Die Arbeit untersucht die kausale Beziehung zwischen regionalen Arbeitsmarktvariablen und internen Migrationsstömen für deutsche Bundesländer zwischen 1991–2006. Die Autoren verwenden ein VAR Modell mit Paneldaten zur Identifikation der Feedback Effekte zwischen den Variablen und zur Analyse der dynamischen Eigenschaften des Systems mit Hilfe von Impuls-Antwort Funktionen. Darüber hinaus wird das Modell verwendet, um die Entwicklung der spezifischen Ost-West Wanderungen nach der Wiedervereinigung zu analysien und das ostdeutsche ‚empirische Puzzle‘ zu beleuchten, welches eine Situation beschreibt, bei der Migrationsbewegungen nur unverhältnismäßig auf Arbeitsmarktungleichgewichte reagieren. In der Tat gibt die Analyse Hinweise für ein derartiges Puzzle in den 1990er Jahren, was insbesondere auf hohe West-Ost Einkommenstransfers, eine schnelle exogen getriebene Lohnanpassung an das West-Niveau sowie die Möglichkeit des Pendels zwischen den Makroregionen zurückzuführen ist. Allerdings dreht sich dieses Verhältnis in nachfolgenden Perioden: Entlang der zweiten Auswanderungswelle von Ost nach West um das Jahr 2001 sind die Netto-Ausströme aus Ostdeutschland viel höher als es die regionale Arbeitsmarktsituation erwarten lassen würde. Da diese zweite Abwanderungswelle mit dem graduellen Ausklingen der West-Ost Transferzahlungen und einer deutlich getrübten Erwartungshaltung hinsichtlich der Geschwindigkeit der Ost-West Einkommenskonvergenz einhergeht, wird für diese Periode der Abbau einer ‚zurückgestauten‘ Abwanderungswelle sichtbar. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Björn Alecke & Timo Mitze & Gerhard Untiedt, 2010. "Internal migration, regional labour market dynamics and implications for German East-West disparities: results from a Panel VAR," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 30(2), pages 159-189, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jahrfr:v:30:y:2010:i:2:p:159-189
    DOI: 10.1007/s10037-010-0045-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Mitze, Timo & Reinkowski, Janina, 2010. "Testing the Neoclassical Migration Model: Overall and Age-Group Specific Results for German Regions," Ruhr Economic Papers 226, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Thomas Brenner & Matthias Duschl, 2015. "Causal dynamic effects in regional systems of technological activities: a SVAR approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 55(1), pages 103-130, October.
    3. Norbert Hiller & Oliver Lerbs, 2015. "The capitalization of non-market attributes into regional housing rents and wages: evidence on German functional labor market areas," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 35(1), pages 49-72, February.
    4. Mahdi Ziaei, Sayyed, 2015. "Effects of financial development indicators on energy consumption and CO2 emission of European, East Asian and Oceania countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 752-759.
    5. Mitze, Timo & Stephan, Andreas, 2013. "Simultaneous-equations Analysis in Regional Science and Economic Geography," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 309, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    6. Hector Sala & Pedro Trivín, 2014. "Labour market dynamics in Spanish regions: evaluating asymmetries in troublesome times," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 197-221, August.
    7. Michaela Fuchs & Antje Weyh, 2015. "Return migration to East Germany: Spatial patterns and the relevance for regional labor markets," ERSA conference papers ersa15p835, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Mitze, Timo, 2010. "Network Dependency in Migration Flows – A Space-time Analysis for Germany since Re-unification," Ruhr Economic Papers 205, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Timo Mitze & Janina Reinkowski, 2010. "Testing the Neoclassical Migration Model: Overall and Age-Group Specific Results for German Regions," Ruhr Economic Papers 0226, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Michela Martinoia, 2011. "European Integration, Labour Market Dynamics and Migration Flows," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 97-127, June.
    11. Björn Alecke & Timo Mitze & Gerhard Untiedt, 2010. "Internal migration, regional labour market dynamics and implications for German East-West disparities: results from a Panel VAR," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 30(2), pages 159-189, September.
    12. repec:elg:eechap:14395_7 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Caliendo, Marco & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Hennecke, Juliane & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2015. "Job Search, Locus of Control, and Internal Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 9600, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    14. Guenter Karl Haag & Philipp Liedl & Barbara Schwengler & Ekaterini Sdogou, 2014. "Forecasting of the effects of the last economic crisis and simulation of the potential emergence of new regional structure in Germany," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 276-287.
    15. Matthias Duschl & Thomas Brenner, 2013. "Growth dynamics in regional systems of technological activities – A SVAR approach," Working Papers on Innovation and Space 2013-12, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
    16. Christina Westphal, 2016. "Healthy Migrants? Health Selection of Internal Migrants in Germany," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 703-730, December.
    17. repec:zbw:rwirep:0226 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Michaela Fuchs, 2016. "Unemployment decline in East Germany: the role of demography," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 36(2), pages 145-168, October.
    19. Mitze, Timo & Reinkowski, Janina, 2010. "Testing the Validity of the Neoclassical Migration Model: Overall and Age-Group Specific Estimation Results for German Spatial Planning Regions," MPRA Paper 23616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Uwe Blien & Stefan Fuchs & Georg Hirte, 2013. "New advances in the analysis of regional labour markets," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(2), pages 243-248, June.
    21. Timo Mitze & Torben Schmidt, 2015. "Internal migration, regional labor markets and the role of agglomeration economies," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 55(1), pages 61-101, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Internal Migration; Panel VAR; System GMM; C33; J61; R23;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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