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Phillips Curve or wage curve? : evidence from West Germany: 1980-2004


  • Baltagi, Badi H.
  • Blien, Uwe

    () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Wolf, Katja

    () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])


"This paper reconsiders the West German wage curve using the employment statistics of the Federal Employment Services of Germany (Bundesanstalt für Arbeit) over the period 1980-2004. This updates the earlier study by Baltagi and Blien (1998) by 15 years for a more disaggregated 326 regions of West Germany. It is based on a random sample of 417,426 individuals drawn from the population of employees whose establishments are required to report to the social insurance system. We find that the wage equation is highly autoregressive but far from unit root. This means that this wage equation is not a pure Phillips curve, nor a static wage curve, and one should account for wage dynamics. This in turn leads to a smaller but significant unemployment elasticity of -0.02 up to -0.03 rather than the -0.07 reported in the static wage curve results reported by Baltagi and Blien (1998)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2007. "Phillips Curve or wage curve? : evidence from West Germany: 1980-2004," IAB Discussion Paper 200714, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:200714

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Markus Pannenberg & Johannes Schwarze, 2000. "Wage Dynamics and Unemployment in Germany: Evidence from Regional Panel Data," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 14(4), pages 645-655, December.
    2. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    3. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2005. "The Last Word on the Wage Curve?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 421-450, July.
    4. Víctor M. Montuenga-Gómez & José M. Ramos-Parreño, 2005. "Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 735-765, December.
    5. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefanie Schurer, 2008. "Labour Market Outcomes of Second Generation Immigrants: How Heterogeneous Are They Really?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2008n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    2. Ludsteck, Johannes, 2008. "Wage cyclicality and the wage curve under the microscope," IAB Discussion Paper 200811, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Stefani Schurer, 2008. "Labour Market Outcomes of Second Generation Immigrants: How Heterogeneous Are They Really?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0057, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Michela Martinoia, 2011. "European Integration, Labour Market Dynamics and Migration Flows," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 97-127, June.
    5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0057 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Dirk HOORELBEKE, "undated". "Wage flexibility and Phillips curves in the Belgian regions," EcoMod2009 21500039, EcoMod.
    7. Uwe Blien & Hermann Gartner & Heiko Stüber & Katja Wolf, 2009. "Regional price levels and the agglomeration wage differential in western Germany," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 43(1), pages 71-88, March.
    8. Mitze, Timo & Reinkowski, Janina, 2010. "Testing the Validity of the Neoclassical Migration Model: Overall and Age-Group Specific Estimation Results for German Spatial Planning Regions," MPRA Paper 23616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Reinhold Kosfeld & Alexander Werner, 2008. "Die Lohnkurve in Deutschland unter Berücksichtigung des regionalen Preisniveaus," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200810, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    10. Timo MITZE & Björn ALECKE & Gerhard UNTIEDT, "undated". "Determinants of Interregional Migration Among German States and its Implications for Reducing East-West Disparities: Results from a Panel VAR Using Efficient GMM Estimation," EcoMod2008 23800089, EcoMod.

    More about this item


    Arbeitslosenquote; Lohnhöhe; regionaler Arbeitsmarkt; Lohnkurve; IAB-Beschäftigtenstichprobe; Phillipskurve; Westdeutschland; Bundesrepublik Deutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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