IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Net migration and state labor market dynamics

  • Joshua Hojvat Gallin
Registered author(s):

    I present a simple model of migration in which the net migration rate into a state depends on the expected present value of labor market conditions and amenities. I show that though this is a common model, existing empirical estimates do not separately identify the underlying parameters. The identification problem can be thought of as an omitted variable bias because no explicit measure of expected future labor market conditions is included. I use state-level data to estimate empirical models in which the underlying parameters are identified. I find that high wages and low unemployment encourage in-migration, but that the omitted variable bias can be large. For example, when I control for future conditions in one model, the strength of the relationship between current wages and net migration is less than half as large. I integrate the migration model into a simple labor supply and demand framework and use my estimates of the migration model to simulate a labor market's response to permanent and transitory demand shocks. In the short run, net migration responds more to permanent shocks and current wages and employment rates respond more to transitory ones.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1999/199916/199916abs.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1999/199916/199916pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1999-16.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: 1999
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-16
    Contact details of provider: Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551
    Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/

    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information: Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/fedsorder.html

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1, 07.
      • Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, 07.
    2. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Two-step two-stage least squares estimation in models with rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 333-355, April.
    3. Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
    4. Charles A. Fleischman, 1997. "The GMM parameter normalization puzzle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Topel, Robert H, 1986. "Local Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages S111-43, June.
    6. Jaewoo Ryoo & Sherwin Rosen, 2004. "The Engineering Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages S110-S140, February.
    7. Chinhui Juhn & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 1991. "Why Has the Natural Rate of Unemployment Increased over Time?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 75-142.
    8. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August.
    9. W. A. V. Clark, 1985. "Human Migration," Book Chapters, in: Grant I. Thrall (ed.), Scientific Geography, pages 51 Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    10. Greenwood, Michael J, 1969. "An Analysis of the Determinants of Geographic Labor Mobility in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 189-94, May.
    11. Randall W. Eberts & Joe A. Stone, 1992. "Wage and Employment Adjustment in Local Labor Markets," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wea, November.
    12. Abel, Andrew B, 1981. "A Dynamic Model of Investment and Capacity Utilization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 96(3), pages 379-403, August.
    13. repec:brs:ecchap:12 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
    15. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    16. Fields, Gary S, 1979. "Place-to-Place Migration: Some New Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(1), pages 21-32, February.
    17. Killingsworth, Mark R. & Heckman, James J., 1987. "Female labor supply: A survey," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 103-204 Elsevier.
    18. Pissarides, Christopher A & McMaster, Ian, 1990. "Regional Migration, Wages and Unemployment: Empirical Evidence and Implications for Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 812-31, October.
    19. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    20. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-57, September.
    21. Gabriel, Stuart A. & Shack-Marquez, Janice & Wascher, William L., 1993. "Does migration arbitrage regional labor market differentials?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 211-233, April.
    22. Timothy J. Bartik, 2003. "Local Economic Development Policies," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 03-91, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.