International Migration to Germany: Estimation of a Time-Series Model and Inference in Panel Cointegration
In this paper we study the determinants of international migration to Germany, 1967-2000. The empirical literature on macro-economic migration functions usually explains migration flows by a set of explanatory variables such as the income differential, employment rates, and migrations stocks as in Hatton (1995), for example. Since macroeconomic variables are widely acknowledged as nonstationary, the standard model in the migration literature can only meet the requirements of modern non-stationary time-series econometrics if migrations flows and the explanatory variables are integrated of the same order and if these variables form a cointegrated set. In order to prove whether the standard specification is compatible with our data, we use the univariate Augmented Dickey-Fuller test as well as its panel data version, developed in Im, Pesaran, and Shin (2003), to test for unit roots in the time series. The tests demonstrate that migration rates are stationary, while the remaining explanatory variables follow I(1) processes. Consequently, we suggest an alternative specification of the long-run migration function with migration stocks as the dependent variable. For this specification, we find that all variables are I(1) processes, and that the null of no cointegration can be decisively rejected by applying the panel cointegration test of Pedroni (1999). The parameter inference in the cointegrating regressions is conducted using the method of canonical cointegrating regressions of Park (1992). Our empirical findings generally agree with predictions of migration theory.
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.diw.de/en
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1994. "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Hua, 1996. "Mean Reversion in Interest Rates: New Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 604-21, November.
- Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Greenwood, Michael J, 1975. "Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 397-433, June.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995.
"Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Burda, Michael C, 1995.
"Migration and the Option Value of Waiting,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- M. C. Burda, 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,58, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Burda,M.C., 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," Papers 597, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002.
"Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LEVINLIN: RATS procedure to perform Levin-Lin-Chu test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00242, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp391. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.