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Are Our FEERs Justified?

Author

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  • Barisone, G.
  • Driver, R.L.
  • Wren-Lewis, S.

Abstract

The Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) method of calculating an equilibrium real exchange rate is the most widely used alternative to PPP. This paper presents the first comprehensive historical test of FEER calculations for six major economies, using estimates for the last twenty years. We focus on unit root and cointegration techniques both at the individual country level and jointly using panel based estimation. Specifically, we test whether real exchange rates cointegrate with time series for the FEER with a coefficient of unity, so that the difference between the FEER and the real exchange rate is stationary. Even at an individual country level, the results provide support for the FEER, particularly in Canada, the UK and Germany. Panel unit root tests suggest that the real exchange rate and FEER cointegrate. Overall the results suggest that, with the possible exception of the US, the FEER approach represents an improvement over PPP in explaining medium to long term trends in the real exchange rates of the major industrialised countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Barisone, G. & Driver, R.L. & Wren-Lewis, S., 2000. "Are Our FEERs Justified?," Discussion Papers 0002, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:exe:wpaper:0002
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    1. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2013. "Désajustements de change, fédéralisme budgétaire et redistribution. Comment s'ajuster en union monétaire," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 57-96.
    2. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2010. "On the Complementarity of Equilibrium Exchange-Rate Approaches," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 618-632, September.
    3. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2015. "Global imbalances: Should we use fundamental equilibrium exchange rates?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 383-398.
    4. Carolina Arteaga & Roderick Luna & Jair Ojeda-Joya, 2011. "Normas de cuenta corriente y tasa de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 681, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. repec:eco:journ1:2014-03-09 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Vincent Duwicquet & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2012. "Exchange Rate Misalignments, Fiscal Federalism and Redistribution: How to Adjust in a Monetary Union," Post-Print halshs-00848886, HAL.
    7. Aaron G Grech, "undated". "Assessing employment in Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2006, Central Bank of Malta.
    8. Patrick PLANE & Ridha NOUIRA & SEKKAT, 2010. "Exchange Rate Undervaluation to Foster Manufactured Exports: A Deliberate Strategy?," Working Papers 201010, CERDI.
    9. Jamel Saadaoui, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 1993-2005.
    10. Abdessalem GOUIDER & Ridha NOUIRA, 2014. "The Impact of Misalignment on FDI in the Developing Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 784-800.
    11. Yizhong Wang, 2010. "The internal and external equilibrium exchange rate of RMB: 1982–2010," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 5(2), pages 210-231, June.
    12. Nouira, Ridha & Plane, Patrick & Sekkat, Khalid, 2011. "Exchange rate undervaluation and manufactured exports: A deliberate strategy?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 584-601.
    13. Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
    14. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente
      [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]
      ," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina lahrèche-Révil & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Is Asia Responsible For Exchange Rate Misalignments Within The G20?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 46-61, February.
    16. Nouira, Ridha & Sekkat, Khalid, 2012. "Desperately seeking the positive impact of undervaluation on growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 537-552.
    17. You, Kefei & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2012. "A twelve-area model for the equilibrium Chinese Yuan/US dollar nominal exchange rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 151-170.
    18. Holtemöller, Oliver & Mallick, Sushanta, 2013. "Exchange rate regime, real misalignment and currency crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 5-14.
    19. Lòpez-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mazier, Jacques & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Temporal dimension and equilibrium exchange rate: A FEER/BEER comparison," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 58-77.
    20. Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Lahrèche-Révil, Amina & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "World-consistent equilibrium exchange rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 12-32, June.
    21. Zhibai Zhang & Xinyue Zou, 2013. "The Ratio Model and its Application: A Revisit," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(6), pages 1-4.
    22. Georgios E. Chortareas & Rebecca L. Driver, 2001. "PPP and the real exchange rate-real interest rate differential puzzle revisited: evidence from non-stationary panel data," Bank of England working papers 138, Bank of England.
    23. Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2010. "What Makes Currencies Volatile? An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 731-750, November.
    24. Enzo Cassino & David Oxley, 2013. "How Does the Exchange Rate Affect the Real Economy? A Literature Survey," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/26, New Zealand Treasury.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EXCHANGE RATE ; TESTS ; ECONOMICS;

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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