IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Long-Run Money Demand in the New EU Member States with Exchange Rate Effects

  • Christian Dreger
  • Hans-Eggert Reimers
  • Barbara Roffia

Within a wide range of other economic and financial indicators, money is highly relevant to the two-pillar monetary strategy of the European Central Bank for detecting risks to price stability over the medium term. Money demand models are a natural benchmark for assessing monetary developments. The existence of a well-specified and stable relation between money and prices can be perceived as a prerequisite for using monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy, which is usually assessed within a money-demand framework. In this respect, the present analysis is important for the new member states of the European Union, as they are expected to join the euro area in future years. In this study, a money-demand analysis in the new member states is conducted using panel cointegration methods. A well-behaved long-run money demand relation can be identified only if the exchange rate is included as part of the opportunity cost. In the long-run cointegrating vector, income elasticity exceeds unity. Over the entire sample period, the exchange rate vis-Ã -vis the U.S. dollar turns out to be significant and a more appropriate variable in money demand than is the euro exchange rate.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=contribution&id=Q62XV070G3R2548K
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Eastern European Economics.

Volume (Year): 45 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 75-94

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:45:y:2007:i:2:p:75-94
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=106044

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  2. Newey, W.K. & West, K.D., 1992. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Working papers 9220, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  3. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December.
  5. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
  6. Chihwa Kao & Suzanne McCoskey, 1997. "A Residual-Based Test Of The Null Of Cointegration In Panel Data," Econometrics 9711002, EconWPA.
  7. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
  8. Claudia Buch, 2001. "Money demand in Hungary and Poland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 989-999.
  9. Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-25, June.
  10. Breitung, Jörg, 2002. "A parametric approach to the estimation of cointegration vectors in panel data," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,3, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  11. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-78, September.
  12. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
  13. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
  14. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  15. Kaddour Hadri, 1999. "Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data," Research Papers 1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
  16. Peter Backé & Christian Thimann & Olga Arratibel & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Arnaud Mehl & Carolin Nerlich, 2004. "The acceding countries’ strategies towards ERM II and the adoption of the euro - an analytical review," Occasional Paper Series 10, European Central Bank.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
  18. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  19. Bai, Jushan, 2004. "Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 137-183, September.
  20. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I.
  21. Warne, Anders & Bruggeman, Annick & Donati, Paola, 2003. "Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 0255, European Central Bank.
  22. Banerjee, A. & Marcellino, M. & Osbat, C., 2000. "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-economic Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/20, European University Institute.
  23. Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005. "Money Rules For The Eurozone Candidate Countries," Macroeconomics 0501033, EconWPA.
  24. Selcuk, Faruk, 2003. "Currency substitution: new evidence from emerging economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 219-224, February.
  25. Westerlund, Joakim, 2003. "Feasible Estimation in Cointegrated Panels," Working Papers 2003:12, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 10 Nov 2003.
  26. R. Golinelli & R. Orsi, 2001. "Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 424, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  27. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  28. Mackinnon, J.G. & Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L., 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 96a09, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  29. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  30. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:45:y:2007:i:2:p:75-94. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Nguyen)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.