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Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications

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  • David Greasley
  • Les Oxley

Abstract

The paper discusses a range of modern time series methods that have become popular in the past 20 years and considers their usefulness for cliometrics research both in theory and via a range of applications. Issues such as, spurious regression, unit roots, cointegration, persistence, causality, structural time series methods, including time varying parameter models, are introduced as are the estimation and testing implications that they involve. Applications include a discussion of the timing and potential causes of the British Industrial Revolution, income ‘convergence’ and the long‐run behaviour of English real wages 1264–1913. Finally some new and potentially useful developments are discussed including the mildly explosive processes; graphical modelling and long memory.

Suggested Citation

  • David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:24:y:2010:i:5:p:970-1042
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6419.2010.00650.x
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    1. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Clio And The Economist: Making Historians Count," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 755-774, December.
    2. Mubashir Qasim & Les Oxley & Eoin McLaughlin, 2020. "Genuine savings as a test of New Zealand weak sustainability," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 89-127, January.
    3. Greasley, David & McLaughlin, Eoin & Hanley, Nick & Oxley, Les, 2017. "Australia: a land of missed opportunities?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 674-698, December.
    4. Greasley, David & Hanley, Nick & Kunnas, Jan & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2014. "Testing genuine savings as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being over the (very) long-run," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 171-188.
    5. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2015. "The dynamics of economic growth, oil prices, stock market depth, and other macroeconomic variables: Evidence from the G-20 countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 84-95.
    6. Carlos Bastos Pinkusfeld & Eduardo F. Bastian & Julia De Medeiros Braga & Ricardo Bielschowsky, 2018. "Some Stylized Facts On External Shocks And Inflation Upsurge In Brazil, 1951-1985," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 25, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Matthew Gibbons & Les Oxley, 2017. "The Relationship of Patenting Applications and Expenditure with Output and Real GDP in Nineteenth Century Colonial New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 17/05, University of Waikato.
    8. Javier Mejía, 2015. "The Evolution of Economic History since 1950: From Cliometrics to Cliodynamics (La evolución de la historia económica desde 1950: de cliometría hasta cliodinámica)," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 2(2), pages 79, December.
    9. Grant Fleming & Frank Liu & David Merrett & Simon Ville, 2022. "Patents, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Australia, 1860-2010," CEH Discussion Papers 08, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    10. Andersson, Jens & Lazuka, Volha, 2019. "Long-term drivers of taxation in francophone West Africa 1893–2010," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 294-313.
    11. Claude DIEBOLT & Karine PELLIER, 2018. "Patents in the Long Run: Theory, History and Statistics," Working Papers of BETA 2018-20, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    12. Engelbert Stockhammer & Joel Rabinovich & Niall Reddy, 2018. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective," FMM Working Paper 14-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    13. Claude Diebolt & Karine Pellier, 2022. "Patents in the Long Run : Theory, History and Statistics," Working Papers hal-02929514, HAL.
    14. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Rabinovich, Joel & Reddy, Niall, 2017. "Distribution, wealth and demand regimes in historical perspective. USA, UK, France and Germany, 1855-2010," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-5, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    15. Bruno, Lars Christian & Grytten, Ola Honningdal, 2024. "Convergence between the Baltic and the Nordic economies: Some reflections based on new data for the Baltic countries," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 5/2024, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O56 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Oceania
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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