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Requiem for the unit root in per capita real GDP? Additional evidence from historical data


  • Edoardo Gaffeo
  • Marco Gallegati


  • Mauro Gallegati


We present new evidence on the uncertain nature of nonstationarity – that is, trend stationarity vs. difference stationarity – of aggregate per capita real output, by submitting to a composite testing procedure a 20-country sample over an historically relevant time span. We find that the degree of uncertainty associated with the presence of a unit root appears to be well exceeding that shown by other studies conducted so far on cross-country historical data. For almost all the countries in our sample, inference appears to be strongly dependent on the type of test one makes use of, so that conclusions reached at early stages of a composite confirmatory testing procedure have to be frequently discarded at subsequent stages. Our reading of these findings points towards rejecting the assumption of temporal homogeneity of per capita GDP time series over long time spans, a prerequisite implicitly assumed in all studies looking for invariant statistical properties like stochastic or deterministic nonstationarity. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Edoardo Gaffeo & Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2005. "Requiem for the unit root in per capita real GDP? Additional evidence from historical data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 37-63, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:30:y:2005:i:1:p:37-63 DOI: 10.1007/s00181-004-0211-y

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    2. Vasudeva N. R. Murthy & Emmanuel Anoruo, 2009. "Are Per Capita Real GDP Series in African Countries Non-stationary or Non-linear? What does Empirical Evidence Reveal?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2492-2504.
    3. Dergiades, Theologos & Martinopoulos, Georgios & Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 2013. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Parametric and non-parametric causality testing for the case of Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 686-697.
    4. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 639-669.
    5. Liddle, Brantley & Messinis, George, 2015. "Revisiting sulfur Kuznets curves with endogenous breaks modeling: Substantial evidence of inverted-Us/Vs for individual OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 278-285.
    6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9848 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jonathan Hill & Liang Peng, 2014. "Unified Interval Estimation For Random Coefficient Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 282-297, May.
    8. Kauko, Karlo, 2010. "The feasibility of through-the-cycle ratings," Research Discussion Papers 14/2010, Bank of Finland.
    9. Paresh Narayan, 2008. "Is Asian per capita GDP panel stationary?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 439-449, June.

    More about this item


    Unit-root tests; structural instability; output persistence; C22; C53; E10;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General


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