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Real exchange rate behaviour: evidence from black markets

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  • Kul B. Luintel

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK)

Abstract

The behaviour of real exchange rates (relative to the US dollar) is examined using monthly data obtained from the black markets for foreign exchange of eight Asian developing countries. The data span is 31 years. The black market real exchange rates do not show excess volatility during the recent float which is in sharp contrast to the results reported elsewhere. Unit root tests in heterogeneous panels and variance ratio tests confirm their stationarity. Thus, we find support for PPP but not for the 'survivorship' bias (Froot and Rogoff, 1995). There is little evidence of segmented trends. Issues raised by Rogoff (1996)-of whether PPP would hold across countries with differing growth experience-and Lothian and Taylor (1996)-of whether the degree of relative price volatility may bias results in favour of mean reverting real exchange rates-are addressed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Journal: Journal of Applied Econometrics

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  • Kul B. Luintel, 2000. "Real exchange rate behaviour: evidence from black markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 161-185.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:15:y:2000:i:2:p:161-185
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    Cited by:

    1. Goswami, Gour Gobinda & Hossain, Mohammad Zariab, 2013. "Testing Black Market vs. Official PPP: A Pooled Mean Group Estimation Approach," MPRA Paper 63452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yihui Lan, 2003. "The Long-Term Behaviour of Exchange Rates, Part III: The Explosion of Purchasing Power Parity," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 03-07, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    3. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Jiang Liang, 2011. "The PPP hypothesis in the US/China relationship. Fractional integration, time variation and data frequency," Faculty Working Papers 13/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    4. Philip Arestis & Ambika D. Luintel & Kul B. Luintel, 2004. "Does Financial Structure Matter?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_399, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Yihui Lan, 2001. "The Explosion of Purchasing Power Parity," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 01-22, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    6. Mark J. Holmes, 2010. "Are Asia‐Pacific Real Exchange Rates Stationary? A Regime‐Switching Perspective," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 189-203, May.
    7. Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2010. "Black and official exchange rates in Morocco: an analysis of their long-run behaviour and short-run dynamics (1974-1992)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3481-3490.
    8. Kalyoncu, Hüseyin & Kula, Ferit & Aslan, Alper, 2010. "The Validity of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis in Middle East and Northern Africa Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 125-131, December.
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Tankui, Altin, 2008. "The black market exchange rate vs. the official rate in testing PPP: Which rate fosters the adjustment process?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 40-43, April.
    10. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    11. Cerrato, Mario & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2007. "A bootstrap panel unit root test under cross-sectional dependence, with an application to PPP," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 4028-4037, May.
    12. Ibrahim Chowdhury, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate in Bangladesh: A Nonlinear Analysis," Working Paper Series in Economics 14, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    13. Luis Gil-Alana, 2002. "Real exchange rates: evidence from black markets using fractionally integrated semiparametric techniques," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(12), pages 787-790.
    14. Asuamah Yeboah, Samuel, 2017. "Is purchasing power parity hypothesis valid in Ghana? An empirical assessment," MPRA Paper 99394, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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